MLB Betting Odds & Picks: Target Red Sox Moneyline vs. New York Mets

MLB Betting Odds & Picks: Target Red Sox Moneyline vs. New York Mets article feature image

Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Dellin Betances.

  • The Red Sox and Martin Perez will face off against the Mets and Steven Matz Thursday night in the final game of their four-game series this week.
  • The Mets bullpen has been a weakness early on for New York, squandering a lead Wednesday late after two straight wins over the Sox.
  • Given New York’s bullpen issues, can we really justify backing them as -157 favorites? I break it down below and give my favorite pick of the game.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets

Looking for odds and insights on Monday’s game? We’ve got you covered here.

Red Sox Odds +135 [BET NOW]
Mets Odds -157 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-117) [BET NOW]
First Pitch 7:07 p.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After a 2-0 day on Wednesday, I deserved a better reward than drawing the Mets as my next matchup preview. If the Cubs are baseball’s “lovable losers,” then the Mets are not far behind. That may bother some people, but as a Mets fan it is my birthright to chastise this team. Just don’t let me catch you doing the same in my presence.

Mets Bullpen Woes

New York wraps up its four-game home-and-home series against the Red Sox Thursday evening at Citi Field. The Metropolitans swept Boston at Fenway Park, outscoring them 15-7. Then, New York returned home Wednesday with reigning Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom on the mound.

DeGrom conceded two runs over six innings and was in line for the win as he made his departure with a 3-2 lead. But, he was forced to watch the Mets squander that lead in the top of the seventh, followed by a bullpen implosion in the eighth.

This season, the Mets bullpen has a 6.39 ERA. Over the last five games, Mets relievers have failed to register a clean inning without surrendering a run.

This bullpen could play the starring role in a Groundhog’s Day reboot: Whether it’s Guillermo Mota, Armando Benitez, Braden Looper, Jeurys Familia, or Edwin Diaz, the end result appears to be the same painful and sorrowful one each time.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Starting pitcher Steven Matz pitched reasonably well in his last time out, posting seven strikeouts and only yielding one run scored over six innings. But, he has yet to face the Red Sox, who don’t seem to mind left-handed pitching given their slash line of .296/.367/.506 with three home runs.

Red Sox starting pitcher Martin Perez was hit hard early before settling down in his first start against the Baltimore Orioles. He’s appeared in three games against the Mets — drawing two starts — and is 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA.

Betting Analysis

Given New York’s bullpen issues, can we really justify backing them as -157 favorites? Those odds translate to an implied win probability of 61.1%, which is difficult to justify given the state of affairs with their relievers.

The Action Network’s Odds page show the Mets getting the bulk of the money despite the line moving in the opposite direction. That movement is disconcerting enough to keep me off a side here.

The game total may have been worth a look when it opened at 9, but heavy action has now pushed it up to 9.5. The wind at Citi Field can always be tricky, and tonight’s weather forecast projects 10 mph gusts from left to right.

The Pick:

This matchup features too many moving parts — and the current odds offer too little value — for me to take a side … for now.

I’ll look to target the Red Sox if they get to +140 or higher, which could happen before the first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Mets wouldn’t be worth a wager unless their odds dipped down into the -125 or -130 range. You can find live MLB odds and shop for the best line here.

[Bet Mets-Red Sox now at PointsBet and Win $100 if either team get at least one hit]

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