Dodgers vs. Angels Odds & Pick (Sunday, Aug. 16): How to Bet the Battle for L.A.

Credit:

Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin May.

  • BJ Cunningham previews Sunday's MLB Freeway Series matchup between the Dodgers (-200) and the Angels (+165).
  • The Dodgers' young ace Dustin May will toe the rubber, but is the price too steep to back May and the Dodgers?
  • Check out our full game breakdown below, including odds, picks, and predictions for today's matchup.

Dodgers vs. Angels Betting Odds

Dodgers Odds -165 [Bet Now]
Angels Odds +140 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-120) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 4:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday at 1:00 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The Dodgers look for a sweep of their inner city rivals as they send their young stud prospect Dustin May to the mound on Sunday. After yesterday’s win, the Dodgers now lead the Rockies by two games in the NL West and are beginning to establish a stranglehold on the division. The Angels are now eight games back of Oakland and need to turn things around quickly in order to maintain any relevancy this season.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs

It seems the Dodgers offense has finally woken up. They’ve plated 24 runs on 33 hits in their last three games and are now looking like the best offense in the NL, like they were projected to be entering the season. Mookie Betts has finally found his stride as well, hitting five home runs in his last three games.

The Dodgers have been mashing right-handed pitching this season, reporting a .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+, so they should have no trouble getting to Julio Teheran.

Dodgers Projected Starter

Dustin May, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

 

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

The Dodgers’ 22-year-old rookie Dustin May looks like their ace of the future. He has electric stuff, featuring a sinker/two-seam-type pitch that can top out at 99 mph with crazy movement. As you can see in the clip below, it’s almost impossible to hit:

May has drawn comparisons to Jacob deGrom due to both pitchers’ insane combination of velocity and movement. He also has sick cutter that drifts away from righties and breaks in on lefties. May also has a drop-off-the-table curveball, but it is by far his worst pitch. Opposing hitters tagged May’s curveball for a .477 wOBA last season.

May’s sinker/two-seamer has been really good to open the season, allowing a meager .234 wOBA to opponents. However, his cutter and curveball have been roughed up a bit, allowing a .340 wOBA on 138 combined total pitches. Admittedly, that is a small sample size, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Los Angeles Angels

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs

The Angels offense started pretty slowly to open the season but caught fire in the series against the A’s earlier this week. They plated 20 runs on 36 hits and took two of three from their in-state rivals. Unsurprisingly, Mike Trout has led the Angels’ offensive resurgence, posting a .412 wOBA and already hitting nine home runs this year.

The Angels have been crushing right-handed pitching with a .339 wOBA and 119 wRC+. So, Dustin May will have a big task on his hands trying to navigate this lineup.

Angels Projected Starter

Julio Teheran, RHP

Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Julio Teheran has not had a positive start to the 2020 season. Teheran has started two games, but he hasn’t been able to make it past the third inning in either appearance. He has allowed seven earned runs in only 4.2 innings and hasn’t been effective with his fastball or sinker.

Both pitches have been shelled so far this season with a wOBA against of over .500. At this point in Teheran’s career, he needs to be on point with his location to be effective — especially because his average velocity has dropped from 92.0 mph in 2014 to 89.7 mph in 2020.

He’ll face a difficult test against this suddenly resurgent Dodgers lineup and will need to be on point if he want to last beyond the third inning for the first time this season.

Bullpens

To no one’s surprise, thee Dodgers’ relievers have been the best in baseball with a collective xFIP of 3.54. The Angels bullpen, on the other hand, has been a disaster. It ranks near the bottom of MLB with a 5.13 xFIP. So , the Dodgers should have a huge advantage today in the pen.

Projections and Pick

At the time of writing, I don’t see any value on either side or the total based on my projections. Ideally, I would jump in on the Dodgers at -148 or better. Conversely, if I could find the Angels at +187 or better, I would pivot to the Angels’ side. If odds or the total shifts, you can follow me on the Action Network app to see if I end up making a play on this game.

[Bet $20+ on Dodgers vs. Angels at PointsBet and Win $100 if either team gets at least one hit]

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