Dodgers vs. Giants Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Wednesday, Aug. 26)
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman #34 of the San Francisco Giants.
Editors Note: Tonight’s Dodgers vs. Giants game has officially been postponed.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Odds
|Dodgers Odds||-245 [Bet Now]|
|Giants Odds||+210 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8 (-113/-108) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||Wednesday, 9:45 p.m. ET|
After Donovan Solano’s walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning last night, the San Francisco Giants are now one game below .500.
They’ll send their ace Kevin Gausman to the mound in hopes he can shut down a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers will counter with Clayton Kershaw, who will look to avenge last night’s loss against his bitter rivals and maintain LA’s sizable lead in the National League West.
Check out our free MLB odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.
Dodgers Projected Lineup
After a slow start to the season, the Dodgers have found their groove offensively, and the rest of the NL should be worried. The Dodgers lead MLB with 61 home runs and 169 RBIs, with 32 of those homers and 89 of those RBIs coming in the past week.
LA has done most of its damage against fastballs, but the Dodgers have struggled against split-fingers (-0.3 weighted split-finger runs). So, look for Gausman to utilize his split-finger more often on Wednesday night.
Dodgers Probable Starter
Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Projected Stats (via Baseball Savant)
Kershaw has been really good through his first four starts of 2020, posting a 2.50 xFIP. However, there are a couple areas of concern.
Over the past few years his fastball has lost a lot of velocity, going from an average of 94.2 mph in 2015 down to 91.8 mph this season. That big dip in velocity has increased the wOBA against it from .275 in 2015 to .314 in 2019 and .376 so far in 2020.
He’s also already given up five home runs in only 24 innings, which has led to a 1.88 HR/9 rate. That high rate won’t bode well for him on Wednesday because the Giants have the second most home runs against lefties this year.
The Giants rank in the top half of MLB against both fastballs and sliders, so Kershaw will have to be on point with his location and utilize his curveball a lot on Wednesday.
Giants Projected Lineup
San Francisco’s offense started the season out slow, but they’ve really turned it on over the past two weeks. In their last 12 games, they’re hitting .277 with 20 home runs, which has lead to a .356 wOBA and 128 wRC+. Mike Yastrzemski has been on absolute fire this season accumulating a .423 wOBA with seven home runs and 23 RBIs.
The Giants have also been obliterating left handed pitching, as they have a .363 wOBA and 136 wRC+, which ranks sixth in MLB. They’ve also hit 18 of their 41 home runs this season versus lefties. With Kershaw sporting a high HR/9 rate (1.88) to begin the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants tagged him for one tonight.
Giants Probable Starter
Kevin Gausman, RHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Gausman has been really unlucky so far this season. He has a ERA of 4.65, but his xFIP is all the way down at 2.92, which ranks eighth among qualified starting pitchers.
Gausman primarily uses two pitches, his fastball and split-finger. His fastball hasn’t been been great this year, allowing a .365 wOBA to opponents, but it is generating a whiff rate over 20%. His split-finger has been very effective over his career and 2020 is no different.
So far this season, his split-finger has produced a 43% whiff rate and only a .204 wOBA against. As you can see, its got some sick drop on it.
Good look at Kevin Gausman’s splitter. This has been a lethal pitch for him this year (.194 xwOBA). pic.twitter.com/1zVzdy7d06
— Brent Maguire (@bmags94) August 21, 2020
The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, accumulating a 3.81 xFIP so far this season. However, the Dodgers had to use five different relievers Tuesday, including Kenley Jansen who blew a save and Dennis Santana gave up the walk-off home run.
Projections and Pick
The Dodgers are obviously heavy favorites with Kershaw on the mound, but I think they’re overvalued in this spot. San Francisco’s offense has been on fire as of late and hitting lefties well.
In addition to that, Gausman is due for some positive regression. I am going to back the Giants run line of +1.5 at +125 (DraftKings), but I would only play it up to +111.
Pick: Giants +1.5 (+125)