The St. Louis Cardinals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 21, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Pirates are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction
- Pirates vs Cardinals Pick: Under 7.5
My Pirates vs Cardinals best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cardinals Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -124o / 102u | -126 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -124o / 102u | +108 |
- Pirates vs Cardinals moneyline: Pirates -126, Cardinals +108
- Pirates vs Cardinals over/under: 7.5 (-124o / +102u)
- Pirates vs Cardinals spread: Pirates -1.5 (+130), Cardinals +1.5 (-156)
Pirates vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Dustin May (RHP, STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.09 / 2.88 | ERA / xERA | 4.81 / 4.45 |
| 3.19 / 3.31 | FIP / xFIP | 3.85 / 4.44 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 49.0% | GB% | 42.4% |
| .277 | BABIP | .338 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 102 | Location+ | 99 |
Pirates vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
When the wind blows in toward home plate at between 5 and 35 MPH, fly balls lose carry, and home run rates drop significantly.
This system targets Unders in these conditions with totals ranging from 6 to 11.
It’s a sharp weather-based angle that exploits environmental factors that are often underweighted in line-setting but heavily affect scoring outcomes.
Pirates vs Cardinals Pick, Betting Analysis
Busch Stadium will feature the toughest hitting environment of the day.
We’re expecting double-digit winds blowing directly in from center field, combined with low-60s temperatures. With this projected weather report, BallParkPal projects a -20% run-scoring factor behind a -34% home-run factor.
With a -20% weather adjustment, I project this total around 6.9 runs.
I worry about Dustin May, who can be a gas can. But he’s kept his barrel rate down (6.6%) and keeps throwing harder (97.1 MPH on average in his most recent outing).
However, I don’t worry about Braxton Ashcraft, who is building upon his impressive rookie season with a 3.09 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 3.89 botERA, and 19% K-BB through his first nine outings. Similarly to May, he throws gas, averaging 97 MPH on his four-seam, but he pairs it with a devastating curveball (19% swinging-strike rate, .218 xWOBA allowed).
I don’t like these two bullpens, but I have a feeling the weather will keep the bats in check while these two starting pitchers toss gas across the plate.
Pick: Under 7.5
