Mets vs. Phillies Odds & Pick (Sunday, August 16): Bet Philly to Break Out the Brooms
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler.
- Check out our betting preview for Sunday's MLB divisional rivalry game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Find odds, predictions and picks below, including why Michael Arinze is betting on Philadelphia to complete the series sweep against New York.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds
|Mets Odds||+123 [Bet Now]|
|Phillies Odds||-141 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9.5 (-113/-108) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||1:05 p.m. ET|
The Mets entered their series against Philadelphia riding high off of two straight wins over the Washington Nationals. New York had ample cause to be optimistic about its looming matchup against the Phillies. For over a decade, the Mets have performed well on the road against their divisional rivals.
Dating back to September of 2009, the Mets are 82-70 at Citizens Bank Park. If you blindly backed the Mets in this spot during that span, a $100 bettor would be up $2550 to date.
But, the results of this series have not fit that longterm trend. The Mets have dropped each of their first two games and are now in danger of being swept.
New York was in this exact spot on June 27th of last season, and here’s the spoiler alert: It didn’t end well. The Phillies doubled-up the Mets by defeating them 6-3.
Ironically enough, the opposing pitcher that Philadelphia defeated that day (Zack Wheeler) will now look to achieve the same result against his former team.
New York Mets
Zack Wheeler opted for free-agency and signed with Philadelphia after last season. The Mets’ attempt to retain the right-hander was lukewarm at best. New York extended a one-year qualifying offer to Wheeler that essentially guaranteed them of a 2020 Draft-pick compensation should he depart.
The Mets were never going to sign Wheeler to a long-term deal, and both sides were fully aware of this as the season winded down. Now, Wheeler gets the chance to face his former team and show them what they missed out on — perhaps while exacting a small measure of revenge.
Wheeler has gotten off to a fast start as a member of the Phillies rotation. He has pitched 19 innings over his three starts, boasting a 2-0 record and a 2.89 ERA. Wheeler has only given up one home run, and his 2.0 groundball-to-flyball ratio is the best he’s ever had in his career.
The Mets lineup only has 28 at-bats against Wheeler, reporting a .214 batting average, .247 wOBA, and one home run. While New York likely has intimate knowledge of the right-hander’s tendencies, making solid contact won’t be an easy chore.
Per FanGraphs data for batted balls against Wheeler, hitters are only making hard contact 26.7% of the time. When hitters do manage to get on base, Wheeler has done a good job of limiting the damage. He has stranded 75% of all base-runners this season.
Rick Porcello was one of the pitchers brought in after the departure of Zack Wheeler. Porcello is 1-2 on the season with a poor 5.68 ERA, but much of that damage was done earlier in the season.
In his first two appearances, he gave up nine earned runs in a combined six innings of work. But over his last two starts, Porcello has only ceded three earned runs over 13 combined innings.
According to Baseball Savant, Porcello is throwing his sinker (44.2% usage) almost 20% more than he did last year. And his 1.47 groundball/flyball ratio is the highest it’s been since his 2014 season with the Tigers.
Porcello can be tough to barrel-up against, partly because he doesn’t throw particularly hard. His averages around 92 mph with his four-seamer and 90 mph with his sinker. However, this season Porcello has been even more difficult to hit: His barrel percentage is only 3.2% which is four percentage points below his career average (7.3%).
The Phillies lineup reports a pitiful .188 batting average and .264 OBP against the right-hander. Interestingly enough ,when they have been able to make contact, it’s gone a long way. In 117 combined at-bats, they’ve managed to hit seven home runs. That’s a pretty good return on just 22 base hits.
Something doesn’t seem quite right with the Mets at the moment. This is a team that has a tendency to fall apart quickly.
But what’s even more concerning has been their inability to generate hits against Philadelphia’s relievers. The Phillies bullpen reports the highest ERA (9.12) in baseball by almost three full runs.
I don’t trust the Mets at this point, and I think Wheeler’s potential motivation against his former team could also play a role in the game’s outcome.
The Phillies have been prodigious with the home run ball against Porcello, and they won’t necessarily need to “barrel up” to get the ball out of the band box that is Citizens Bank Park.
BetMGM is offering the Phillies at -133, and that price is good enough for this bettor. I’ll take Wheeler and the Phillies to make it three-in-a-row against the New York Metropolitans.
For bettors in New Jersey, consider taking Philadelphia at -139 at DraftKings. Or, if you live in Pennsylvania, Parx lists the Phillies at the same price (-139) but offers a 20% profit boost to those odds. Click the link below for more details.