Monday marks the start of a fresh week in the big-league circuit, with 12 games on tap.
Today's slate starts with Mariners vs Rangers and wraps up with Red Sox vs A's, while key matchups like Guardians vs Reds and Braves vs Mets take place in between.
Our experts have you covered from start to finish and have found great options for Monday, July 27.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:00 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Anderson's Diamondbacks vs Pirates Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
The Pirates are a pretty simple team to figure out. You want to play their bats against righties and avoid them against lefties.
We just saw it over the weekend. Matt Boyd and Shota Imanaga shoved against them, and then they bounced right back on Sunday to light up Jameson Taillon for three homers in a 9-8 win.
Tonight, it's Merrill Kelly throwing for the Diamondbacks in PNC Park against the Bucs. This series has huge NL Wild Card implications. For the Pirates, it's Mitch Keller. So we have two bad righties with the same initials going at it!
I think we're going to see some runs in this one. Merrill Kelly has a 4.75 SIERA, the way I calculate it. That's one of the worst in the league.
Mitch Keller is at 4.23, better than Kelly, but still not good. Kelly's 14.5% K% for the season is a real problem, and now he goes into PNC to face a team with a lot of power bats, particularly from the left side.
I can't back the Pirates, because I just don't see Keller being worthy of confidence. I am a little bit surprised that the total is at nine here. The bullpens are nothing special, the starters are bad, and the lineups are both above average.
Give me the Over 9 in this one.
Pick: Over 9 (-120)
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Sean Paul's Guardians vs Reds Over/Under Pick
By Sean Paul
The Guardians remain firmly in the AL Central race, sitting just 2.5 games behind the White Sox for first place. They lost five straight entering this all-Ohio series. So, they can use a get-right win.
Cleveland will give the ball to Slade Cecconi, who has totally flipped his season. Just seven starts into the season, Cecconi held a 6.56 ERA and gave up 4+ runs in five of his outings.
Since then, Cecconi has pitched 13 innings with a 3.57 ERA, a 4.11 xERA and 3.78 FIP. That is plenty good enough to be a back end of the rotation pitcher for a team in a playoff race.
The Reds certainly have the starting pitcher advantage here with the flamethrowing Chase Burns on the mound. In his first full MLB season, Burns is pitching to a 2.42 ERA with a 3.12 xERA and a 3.34 FIP.
Burns is far from a finished product. He can get away with his pure stuff, with his high 90s fastball leading to a 10.37 K/9. But he's a two-pitch pitcher, which can make him a bit predictable and leads to the occasional home run issue.
The under is the play for me. I know Great American Ball Park is a hitters' paradise, but these two offenses are two of the absolute worst in baseball. The over is 27-23 in home games for Cincinnati, but facing the Guardians should help the under.
Cecconi is solid enough to keep the Reds to two or three runs — and Burns could toss six or seven scoreless innings when he's locked in.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-108; Play to 7.5)
Check Sean Paul's Guardians vs Reds full story:
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William Boor's Braves vs Mets Kalshi Pick
By William Boor
ROI is the name of the game and this system has generated a 15% ROI on a 67% hit rate (12-6) this season. So, why are we backing the Braves to win? Well, this system focuses on confident road favorites playing early in-conference series games, often in the first or second matchup.
The system backs teams when their Pythagorean win rate suggests sustained performance, and when environmental conditions — specifically high humidity — favor disciplined, road-tested clubs. The market can undervalue these spots, assuming travel or setting changes might disrupt rhythm, but in reality, these strong road teams often thrive under pressure, especially against familiar foes with short rest and sticky summer conditions that reduce offensive volatility and reward sound execution.
All signs point toward backing the Braves tonight, but if you need a larger sample size to be convinced, consider that this system is 387-233-0 (62%) all time.
Pick: Braves to Win
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Collin Whitchurch Red Sox vs Athletics K Prop
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
The Boston Red Sox made an interesting splash on the trade market recently, parting ways with one of their top young arms in Connelly Early to land Curtis Mead.
However, today they hung onto Payton Tolle — a clear sign of how highly the organization values him. Tolle has enjoyed more success this season than Early, but today, Action PRO thinks sportsbooks are overvaluing the big left-hander as he takes the mound against the Oakland Athletics in Sacramento.
It is tough to gauge the exact environmental impact of pitching in Sacramento relative to a venue like Coors Field, but the market seems slightly too high on Tolle’s profile for this matchup. My colleague Derek Carty is fully on the Tolle fade train today and Action PRO points in the same direction for his strikeout total.
As of when I grabbed these numbers, Payton Tolle Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) shows a massive 18.1% edge according to Action PRO.
Pick: Payton Tolle Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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