Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, July 27.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Cole Young Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
- SEA/TEX Over 8
- ARI/PIT Over 9
- Phillies Under 4.5 Runs
- Nationals Over 4.5 Runs
- Tatsuya Imai 9+ Strikeouts
- Tolle Under 2.5 ER
- Red Sox Moneyline
- CHI/STL Under 10
- Yankees Moneyline
Mariners vs. Rangers Picks
It's George Kirby taking on Kumar Rocker in a strange Monday afternoon game.
Kirby has been solid for the Mariners (3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), but he hasn't looked like the blossoming ace we've thought he could be the last few years.
His K% is down to 21.8% this year, down from 26% last year. He heads into Texas to face a lineup that has a lot of contact-heavy bats — the Rangers lineup averages out to a 21.9% K% and an 8.6% BB% (a league-average lineup right now). They've gotten Wyatt Langford back and going well, and they've held their own offensively of late — So I'm neutral on Kirby.
On the other side is Rocker, who has been a very interesting, frustrating, and exciting pitcher this year. This guy has one good pitch; his slider has a 20% SwStr% on the year, being hit for a .208 xwOBA — It's a sick, sick slider.
The problem for Rocker is that the rest of his pitches (sinker, cutter, four-seamer, changeup) don't work. He has all three fastball variations you like to see, and that's key for him to keep hitters from sitting on an individual movement profile of a heater. But he's so reliant on that slider nonetheless.
Rocker has used it as his most commonly thrown pitch most of the time this year. He profiles as someone who would be much better against righties than lefties — and lefties have him much harder this year (.346 xwOBA from lefties .298 from righties).
The Mariners lineup has Cole Young, Dom Canzone, Josh Naylor, Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, JP Crawford, and Colt Emerson in there as lefties. I think this is a pretty good spot for them to do some damage.
I have Cole Young as the projected leadoff hitter. With some good bats behind him against a pitcher who doesn't have much to offer outside of the slider (which works better against righties), I like Young here.
1st Pick: Cole Young Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-124)
That's my player prop, but MLB Data Warehouse projects this game as one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. We have it at 9.7 runs, which clears the path for an OVER bet.
2nd Pick: Over 8 (-105)
One more! The model is picking out some bad lines in this game. The best home run bet in my HR model is Brandon Nimmo +680 on DraftKings. Based on my projection, that price should be closer to +500. So take advantage there and hope he can connect on one against Kirby.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Picks
The Pirates are a pretty simple team to figure out. You want to play their bats against righties and avoid them against lefties — we just saw it all over the weekend. Matt Boyd and Shota Imanaga shoved against them, and then they bounced right back on Sunday to light up Jameson Taillon for three homers in a 9-8 win.
Tonight, it's Merrill Kelly throwing in PNC Park against the Bucs. This series has huge NL Wild Card implications. For the Pirates, it's Mitch Keller; so we have two bad righties with the same initials going at it!
I think we're going to see some runs in this one. Merrill Kelly has a 4.75 SIERA — one of the worst in the league. Mitch Keller is at 4.23 — better than Kelly, but still not good. Kelly's 14.5% K% for the season is a real problem, and now he goes into PNC to face a team with a lot of power bats, particularly from the left side.
I can't back the Pirates, because I just don't see Mitch Keller being worthy of confidence. I am a little bit surprised that the total is at nine here. The bullpens are nothing special, the starters are bad, and the lineups are both above average. Give me the over nine in this one.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
Phillies vs Marlins Picks
Zack Wheeler, one of the hottest pitchers in the league, is taking on one of the coldest teams (12-game losing streak). It sets up nicely for the Phillies behind their ace.
Wheeler has 10, 14, 10, and nine strikeouts in his last five starts. He's up to a 25% K-BB% on the year with a 2.16 ERA. He's even in the Cy Young picture again — I think Misiorowski will take it with ease, but Wheeler is in the top three or four candidates right now.
I expected to see -200 on the Phillies. We have them at -175. So that's fine if you don't mind the juice on a moneyline. For me, it does seem like a favorable price.
My projection on Wheeler is striking, though. I have him for just seven strikeouts. The Marlins make a lot of contact. Check out some of the strikeout rates vs. RHP from this Marlins lineup:
- Otto Lopez 14%
- Xavier Edwards 13%
- Liam Hicks 11%
- Javier Sanoja 8%
Overall, the lineup has a 20.8% K% for tonight, but the books must be projecting similarly to me, because Wheeler's K prop is set at 7.5 (-145 for the under). That's crazy stuff! I thought we'd get 8.5 here at least, but instead it's 7.5 with juice on the under! I thought that's where I was going to take this bet, but with that line — I can't go there.
Tyler Phillips is on the other side. He's been pretty bad under the hood (4.50 SIERA, 6.4% K-BB%). The one thing he can do is keep the ball on the ground (47% GB%, two homers given up all year at home). That is what you want to do as a right-handed arm staring down Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
The Phillies take a park downgrade here going from Philly to Miami. So I think this game can come in pretty low scoring, but again, it's just a 7.5 O/U! My model projects this game for 8.4 runs.
I'm going to back Phillips and the Marlins bullpen a bit here. It's just not a great spot for a Phillies lineup that really hasn't been all that great this year.
Pick: Phillies Under 4.5 Runs (-120)
Blue Jays vs Nationals Picks
Max Scherzer returns for the Blue Jays to head into DC, the park where the most runs in the league have been scored. Let me remind you of the current state of the future Hall of Famer.
SCHERZER THIS YEAR: 13.7% K%, 10.8% BB%, .378 xwOBA, nine homers in 22 innings. He's given up a league-high 3.7 HR/9. Nobody in the league over 20 innings has been this bad at keeping the ball in the yard.
The Nationals are loaded up for this one. We have a slate-high 9.5 O/U here, and the Nationals are the -132 favorite at home, giving them the majority of those 9.5 runs.
Your home run props on the Nats are in play, but the prices are appropriate:
- James Wood +213
- CJ Abrams +315
- Luis Garcia +329
- Daylen Lile +486
- Dylan Crews +486
So you can't make a great case for +213 on Wood, even though he's one of the most likely hitters on the board tonight to hit a homer. The Nats traded Curtis Mead this weekend, which makes their lineup a little bit worse, but I don't think we're getting the right prices on Scherzer. They're still a little bit too favorable to the veteran. The Blue Jays have a good bullpen, but if the Nats are winning this game, we won't see Louis Varland, so that helps.
I think a Wood + Abrams HR parlay is interesting, but the line I'm liking the most is this:
Pick: Nationals Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
You can almost book them for a couple of homers, even if the bottom of the lineup doesn't have much power at this point. I just want to keep taking advantage of the sad state that Scherzer is in.
Astros vs Angels Picks
Which Tatsuya Imai will we get tonight? This is a guy with five starts above 7.5 strikeouts this year, but also four starts above 3.5 walks. He's been as high as 36 fantasy points scored and as low as -8. He's been under zero fantasy points four times.
So, what's the determining factor? It's all about command of his slider. He almost has two sliders, two grips and two spin profiles that make the pitch move in either direction depending on which grip he uses. It's really wild stuff, but you can understand why that would turn into erraticism quite often.
The Angels are a team that gives up a lot of strikeouts to righties. They have the second-highest K% in the league against RHP (Cincinnati is above them). My model has Imai for a slate-leading 7.6 strikeout projection. The floor is well below that if he has no command, but the ceiling is easily 10+ strikeouts.
The line is at 6.5 with +116 on the over. I think the best way to proceed is to build the ladder up there. Don't just take the over 6.5 for that price; go up there for 9+ strikeouts. That gives you a nice payoff if he has the command, and if he's throwing the ball well, the strikeouts are going to pile up. We're probably not betting one full unit on this, but that protects our bankroll just in case he doesn't have it tonight.
Imai's 29% K% against righties this year, along with what we've said about the Angels, makes this a ceiling spot for the rookie.
Pick: Tatsuya Imai 9+ Strikeouts (+450)
Red Sox vs Athletics Picks
The Athletics get to come back home for this one, and we're always expecting runs in Sacramento. However, the Athletics lost Shea Langeliers this weekend to a torn meniscus. It's unclear if he's out for the year, but he's definitely not playing tonight!
Enter Payton Tolle to face this new-look A's lineup. They did just get Nick Kurtz back, which is a huge impact, but it's not as big of an impact when it's a lefty. Kurtz now has a 37% K% against lefties in his career with just a .298 xwOBA — he's really not that good (yet) without the platoon advantage.
The Athletics lineup has been bad against lefties all year — Langeliers was really the only guy they had keeping it together. Right now, they're extremely weak in spots like these, even at home. That said, it's not the greatest K spot for Tolle since the Athletics have filled in the gaps with some very low strikeout hitters (Jacob Wilson, Jonah Heim, Alika Williams, Jeff McNeil). So I'm not pumping up Tolle's strikeout props in this one, but I do like his chances of having a very good start.
The Red Sox are a road favorite at -175 here as they've been surging while this Athletics team has been fading fast. I still think that's fine. I like Tolle. He's a super talented pitcher and the Red Sox just gave him another vote of confidence by choosing Connelly Early as the guy they traded.
Jack Perkins goes for the Athletics. He's better than people think, but he has a 7.41 ERA with seven homers given up in 34 home innings this year. He's a fly ball pitcher, and this is not the park to be doing such things!
The Red Sox should cruise in this one. I like them even at -175. Let's parlay with it with a Tolle line to get us a good price.
Pick: Tolle Under 2.5 ER (-143), Red Sox Moneyline (-175)
Cubs vs Cardinals Picks
Two under-appreciated lefties square off in this one. David Peterson goes for the Cubs. He is not very good as a starting pitcher, but he does have a habit of limiting homers. Peterson has given up just a .277 xwOBA to lefties. So he's very good against those hitters, of which the Cardinals have a few– against righties, it's worse, but the home run is usually not the problem.
Matt Liberatore is up-and-down, but he does flash some nice skills from time to time with his awesome curveball. The Cubs are on the road here coming off of a series in Pittsburgh. A lot of these Cubs are much better at home. They have a .779 OPS at home this year and a .720 mark on the road.
I like the spot for both pitchers. I wouldn't use them in fantasy leagues or in DFS, but when you see the O/U set at 10 here, that's where I know I'm going.
Pick: Under 10 (-117)
Yankees vs White Sox Picks
Max Fried will make his second start off the IL, and he was brilliant in his return. The Yankees wanted to limit him to 3-4 innings in that first start, but he was too efficient for that to happen.
He threw five shutout innings, giving up just one hit on a 7:1 K:BB. He looked like peak Fried, and I think we get that kind of pitcher again tonight in Chicago. The White Sox have a .731 OPS against righties and a mark of .706 against lefties. They are a very left-handed lineup, which works beautifully for Fried.
On the other side of Fried is another tall lefty, Noah Schultz. But this guy just doesn't have it going.
He has a 19% K% in the Majors now with an 11.5% BB% and a .370 xwOBA given up. The Yankees can be beaten by lefties, that's true, and this game is not in Yankee Stadium — I don't think that matters as much when it's a first-year pitcher who just doesn't have the chops to get Major League hitters out right now.
We're riding the Yanks in this one. The pitching matchup is pointed all the way in the Yankees' favor. Paul Goldschmidt is in a great spot against a bad lefty, and Amed Rosario is a sneaky bet as well. He's hit lefties well this year and should be in the top four or five of this lineup. I like both of them for over 1.5 H+R+RBI, but let's keep the pick recommendation simple.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-150)
My Favorite HR Picks
The biggest hits from the MLB Data Warehouse HR Model:
- Cooper Pratt (+1650 on MGM)
- Brandon Nimmo (+680 on DK)
- Bryce Eldridge (+625 on MGM)
- Noelvi Marte (+540 on DK)
- Sal Stewart (+380 on DK)
- Jo Adell (+540 on FD)
- Eugenio Suarez (+405 on DK)
- Colby Thomas (+610 on DK)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, July 27
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Cole Young Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
- SEA/TEX Over 8
- ARI/PIT Over 9
- Phillies Under 4.5 Runs
- Nationals Over 4.5 Runs
- Tatsuya Imai 9+ Strikeouts
- Tolle Under 2.5 ER
- Red Sox Moneyline
- CHI/STL Under 10
- Yankees Moneyline
