MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Aug. 15): Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman.
- The Oakland A's (-122 odds) and San Francisco Giants (+106 odds) face off the second game of three-game set Saturday.
- The Giants' odds have been on the move this afternoon and Michael Arinze sees value on the home team in this matchup.
- Read his game preview below, including where to find the most betting value.
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Odds
|Athletics Odds||-122 [Bet Now]|
|Giants Odds||+106 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-108/-110) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||7:07 p.m. ET|
The Oakland A’s needed five runs — including a grand slam in the ninth inning and another run in the 10th inning — to rally back from a 7-2 deficit against the San Francisco Giants in Game 1 in the Battle of the Bay. You couldn’t tell it from yesterday’s game, but the Giants are actually -51 in run differential head-to-head against the A’s.
In my Bay Bridge Series preview, I mentioned that the Giants were a scrappy bunch after they split their opening series with the Dodgers and nearly followed that up by taking two out of three from the San Diego Padres.
There’s no doubt: Yesterday’s loss was a shot to the solar plexus.
However, this is a Giants team that can take a punch, and I wouldn’t count them out just yet.
Oakland will look to make it three straight wins when it hands the ball to Sean Manaea tonight. Manaea has struggled to find his footing this season and is off to an 0-2 start with a 9.00 ERA.
The left-hander has five pitches in his arsenal: a four-seamer, changeup, curveball, slider and cutter. Manaea throws his four-seamer 53.5% of the time, but opponents are hitting .405 off of that pitch with a .475 wOBA, .703 SLG and two home runs.
His best pitch this year has been his changeup, which unfortunately he’s throwing far less often (20.4%). Batters are only hitting .214 off his changeup with a .206 wOBA, .214 SLG and no home runs. His four-seamer — which is essentially his fastball — is only averaging 90 mph, so frankly I’m not sure why he’s so in love with the pitch.
Manaea will be the second lefty the Giants face in as many days, and they’ve relished going up against southpaws this season. Despite having 280 fewer at-bats, the Giants have produced the same amount of home runs (12) as when they’ve faced right-handed pitchers. San Francisco is also hitting for a higher average (.253 vs. .243), slugging (.465 vs. .368) and on-base percentage (.328 vs. .302).
Manaea has gone 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA against the Giants over his career. But, his recent form suggests that he may be a long way off from putting up those type of numbers tonight.
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants will counter with Kevin Gausman on the mound. Gausman is 0-1 on the year with a 4.05 ERA. Contrary to what his winless record suggest, he has actually pitched better of late. In Gasuman’s last start, he went 6.1 innings while giving up just one run and no walks in a 6-1 loss to the Dodgers. He has shown improvement in each of his last starts — first, by pitching deeper into games; and second by giving up fewer runs.
Gausman should be buoyed by his numbers against the current Oakland lineup. In 34 at-bats against Gausman, Oakland batters are hitting just .118 with a .134 wOBA, .206 SLG and no home runs.
Gausman’s 2.43 FIP and 3.17 SIERA — both of which are lower than his ERA — suggest that he’s been a bit unlucky so far. If better fortune is around the corner, then a Saturday night matchup in the Bay Bridge Series would be a great place to start.
The Giants opened as huge underdogs around +170. They’ve taken significant money during the time that I’ve been writing this piece, and now the best number on the board is being offered by DraftKings at +130.
Normally, I would say that too much value has been lost on San Francisco’s line. But this revenge spot nonetheless intrigues me.
The Giants are coming off an extra-inning loss after blowing a five-run lead. Couple that with their success against left-handed pitching and the fact that the Giants are +9.24 units in this situational spot, and I like my chances even more.
I’ll back Gausman to get his first win of the season and the Giants to tie this series at one apiece.
Pick: Giants +130 (Play down to +120)