MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Staff’s 3 Best Bets for Wednesday, Including Mariners vs. White Sox (April 13)
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Robbie Ray
We have two divisional matchups in our sights this afternoon, and a game between American League contenders rounding out the slate this evening.
Here are our three best bets from Wednesday in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
DJ James: After the trade deadline last season, both of these teams hovered around average against righties (100 wRC+). Yes, both of these teams experienced significant roster turnover in the offseason.
The Mets added Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. Escobar hits lefties far better in his career, but Marte and Canha, shockingly, have reverse splits as right-handed batters.
Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos joined Philadelphia in the offseason. Castellanos mashes lefties far better than righties. The reverse is true for Schwarber. Add into the mix that Bryce Harper is now potentially landing on the injured list with an elbow injury, and this results in a massive blow for the Phillies.
Even if they struggled, both of these savvy veteran starters managed six innings in their first starts this season. They should be able to hand it over to the back-end of each bullpen without allowing too many runs. Pitching should reign supreme in this matchup.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Tanner McGrath: I’m going to keep backing Logan Webb until I can’t anymore.
After the Opening Day win over Miami, the Giants have now won 23 of Webb’s last 27 starts. That’s astounding.
And it’s not luck. Logan Webb is very good. After posting a sub-2.70 FIP last season, projections have him finishing the season with a sub-3.00 FIP again. His slider is particularly deadly, holding opposing hitters to a .191 wOBA with a 47.1% whiff rate last season.
Logan Webb, Filthy Sinkers and Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/ce8qOPbx9K
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2022
The Padres do not like sliders, having posted a -16.1 wSL mark in 2021.
Moreover, I’m actually rather low on the Padres.
I think they’re overvalued after the 4-1 start. The Pads opened their season against the Diamondbacks. So, the schedule only gets more difficult from here. San Diego is still missing Fernando Tatis Jr. and is a bit short in the rotation as I expect Yu Darvish to struggle moving forward.
Despite a dominant Opening Day start, I’m not sold on Sean Manaea. Even after posting a 3.62 xFIP in 2021, he only ranked in the 18th percentile in avg. exit velocity allowed (90.2 mph). If there’s a time to sell high on him, it could be this start.
Plus, the Giants like lefties. They finished ninth in MLB last season in wRC+ against southpaws (103), leading the league in walk rate against that side (10.3%).
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
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Collin Whitchurch: It’s the reigning AL Cy Young winner against Dallas Keuchel … and the reigning AL Cy Young winner is an underdog.
I get that the White Sox are going to be favored more often than not this year. I also get that Robbie Ray is a lefty, and the White Sox are generally pretty successful against lefties.
I ALSO get that Ray is unlikely to replicate his amazing 2021 campaign.
But, come on.
Keuchel finished last season with a 5.28 ERA. xFIP says he was a little unlucky, but his xERA was still a terrible 6.15.
Ray faced these White Sox twice last season and combined for 13 1/3 innings with 27 strikeouts, one walk and one earned run. The White Sox dealt with a lot of injuries last year, but the second of those games did have Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert in the lineup, and they’ll still be without Yoan Moncada today.
The White Sox certainly have a chance to get to Ray given their overall success against southpaws, and if you’re risk averse you could instead target the Mariners’ team total (over 4 at -120), but getting the better end of this pitching matchup at plus money is too good to pass up.