Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Sept. 8)

Reds vs. Cubs Odds

Odds updated as of Tuesday at 6:15 p.m. ET and via BetRivers. Get up to a $250 deposit match at BetRivers today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Cubs will look to maintain their 2.5-game lead in the NL Central as they send Alec Mills to the mound to take on Tyler Mahle and the Reds. Cincinnati is 4.5 games out of the final playoff spot, so it needs to go on a run down the stretch if it wants to make the playoffs.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Reds Projected Lineup

Cincinnati has been below average offensively this season, accumulating a .314 wOBA and 91 wRC+. Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos have led the Reds offensively this season, as they are the only players with a wOBA above .350.

The Reds have been successful versus only fastballs and changeups, which are Mills' main two pitches. So, they should have a good chance to get back on track on Tuesday.

Reds Probable Starter

Tyler Mahle, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Mahle has been a strikeout machine so far in 2020, as he's sporting a 10.5 K/9 rate. However, it has been strikeout or bust for him, as his xFIP is all the way up at 4.78.

Mahle is mainly a fastball-slider pitcher and he's been pretty successful with it so far this season. He's racked up 31 strikeouts and is holding opponents to a .179 average on both of those pitches. He'll have a great matchup on Tuesday, as the Cubs rank in the bottom 10 of MLB against both fastballs and sliders.

Cubs Projected Lineup 

Chicago has been average offensively this season, checking in with a .322 wOBA and 99 wRC+. Ian Happ and Jason Heyward have been the Cubs' best hitters this year, as they are the only two with a wOBA over .360.

The Cubs have done most of their damage against right-handed pitching, checking in at a .334 wOBA and 107 wRC+. Even though they've crushed righties thus far, they'll still have a tough matchup against Mahle on Tuesday.

Cubs Probable Starter

Alec Mills, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Mills hasn't been great through his first seven starts of 2020. He's posted a 5.50 ERA and a 4.80 xFIP in 37.2 innings, and has had real issues keeping the ball in the yard (1.91 HR/9). He's primarily a fastball-sinker pitcher, but neither pitch has been particularly effective this year, allowing a .292 batting average to opposing hitters.

The bad news for Mills is that the Reds' success offensively has came against sinkers, fastballs and changeups. So, I'd imagine the Reds lineup will see a steady dose of curveballs and sliders tonight.

Bullpens

The Reds improved their bullpen over the trade deadline, adding Archie Bradley from the Diamondbacks. He will no doubt improve their 5.08 ERA as a group, which ranks in the bottom half of MLB.

The Cubs made a couple moves at the deadline to acquire left-handed relievers, but didn't significantly improve their bullpen.

Projections and Pick

The wind is projected to be blowing in at 17+ mph toward home plate, so at the time of writing the over/under has not been posted. However, I think there is some value on Cincinnati as an underdog with Mills on the hill for the Cubs.

I am going to back the Reds at +105 and would play them up to -103.

Pick: Reds +105 [Bet now at Bet Rivers and get $250 FREE with your deposit]