MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Yankees vs. Blue Jays Betting Preview (September 26)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Yankees vs. Blue Jays Betting Preview (September 26) article feature image

Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)

  • Aaron Judge takes center stage in the latest Yankees vs. Blue Jays matchup in Toronto.
  • But is there another star who you should bet in this AL East matchup?
  • Nick Martin dives in and breaks down what player prop he's taking.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds

Yankees Odds+104
Blue Jays Odds-122
Over/Under7.5 (-105/-115)
Time7:07 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Aaron Judge's pursuit of home run No. 61 will continue at the Rogers Centre on Monday, a ballpark in which the Yankees' phenom has hit at effectively, including 11 long shots in 152 plate appearances.

Kevin Gausman will look to lead Toronto to a third consecutive victory, and will look to avoid being on the wrong end of history himself.

Luis Severino will go for the Yankees — who sit 8.5 games up on the Jays in an AL East race that is all but over, especially should the Yankees manage even a single win in this series.

Judge may be the story, but could Toronto's superstar steal the show Monday?

Yanks' Severino Struggling Against AL East Counterpart

Severino returned from a lat strain in fine form on Wednesday against the Pirates, throwing five strong innings while allowing just one earned run and two hits.

His four-seamer averaged 97.2 MPH in that contest, which is even greater than his season-long average.

Severino's xERA of 3.06 goes as one of the better marks in the AL, and top form from the 28-year-old righty will likely be an important part of a potentially long run in the postseason for the Yankees.

Severino has struggled against the Blue Jays this season, pitching to an ERA of 5.02 altogether, including disastrous outings in the last two matchups.

Aside from Sunday's rain-shortened contest ending right as Judge was about to hit, it still realistically was a break for the Yankees, who got the win without needing to close out the final few innings of a close game with a relevant bullpen arm or two.

That's a strong note heading into this matchup, as Severino will likely not be pushed too far.

Judge's pursuit of Roger Maris' AL record will be the main part of the story tonight, and historically, he has hit Gausman very effectively, with three home runs and eight hits in 22 plate appearances.

Gausman has obviously rounded out his game considerably this year in Toronto, though.

How Does Jays' Gausman Match Up?

Gausman's addition of a true put-away pitch (an elite splitter) has been a big part of what has been a very strong season. He holds an xERA of 3.38 altogether, and an exceptional xFIP of 2.78.

Gausman has struggled to far worse results at the Rogers Centre — with an ERA of 4.67 — and has allowed a slug-rate of .483 at home. He has also fared worse against righties, who own a .443 slug-rate this season versus Gausman.

That's a relevant note entering a matchup where all eyes will be on Judge. It's also worth noting that Gausman has allowed a HR/9 rate of 0.76, which is the 14th-best in baseball this season.

Toronto enters off of a very strong offensive series in Tampa against an elite pitching staff, including a massive performance on Sunday versus Shane McClanahan.

The Blue Jays' offense has now hit to the second-best wRC+ in the league over the last 30 days.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. has always hit right-handed pitching and the fastball effectively, including a slug-rate of .499 this season and a mark of .544 at home versus righties.

Vladdy is 3-of-8 against Severino this season, with three balls hit to exit velocities of 102.4 or greater.

He has hit 10 home runs on pitches with a velocity over 95 MPH this season, which is tied for the third-most in MLB. Severino's high fastball velocity (96.7 average this season) has been a big part of his effectiveness.

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Yankees-Blue Jays Pick

You're rarely going to see Guerrero at +140 to manage two bases (BetRivers), but due to the quality of Severino, that is the price in this spot.

Toronto has hit Severino very effectively this season, and is holding a lineup in excellent form. The Blue Jays will now see Sevy for a fourth time.

While I might not count on that kind of dominance to continue, I do think this is a strong spot for Guerrero to continue hitting him effectively. Backing Vlad to go over 1.5 total bases in this spot is my favorite play.

Pick: Vlad Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +140

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