MLB Odds & Pitcher Props for Saturday: These Martín Pérez & Domingo Germán Strikeout Totals Have Value (May 15)
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Domingo Germán.
- There is baseball on throughout the day on Saturday, which means there's plenty of betting value across the board.
- Tanner McGrath uses the Action Labs Player Props tool below to find two starting-pitching props that bettors can get behind.
After taking a good, long look at today’s pitching matchups and using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there are two strikeout total props I’m targeting for Saturday's slate of MLB action.
Our Action tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
Today, I’m targeting an afternoon under and an evening over.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Martín Pérez (BOS) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-139)
|Angels vs. Red Sox||Angels -117|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
Martín Pérez is an important part of Boston’s rotation, but by no means is he an elite starting pitcher. He’s posted a 4.01 ERA, a 3.49 FIP and a 1.40 WHIP this season, and the Red Sox are just 3-4 in his starts.
However, with specific reference to his strikeout total, I like the under today for three reasons.
First, Pérez is not a big strikeout pitcher and I’m expecting his strikeout numbers to regress throughout the season. He ranks in the 34th percentile among pitchers in strikeout rate, but his 8.55 K/9 would be a career high. I’m expecting that number to drop closer to his career average (5.94).
Second, Pérez doesn’t pitch a lot of innings. He’s pitched more than five innings just once this season and has been pulled before the fourth inning twice already this season. Thus, he hasn’t accumulated a lot of strikeouts and has gone over the 4.5 number just twice this season.
Third, I like the Angels matchup with Pérez today. The Angels don’t strike out a lot, as their 22.6% strikeout rate is sixth lowest in MLB. Plus, that number drops to 20.9% against left-handed pitchers.
Thus, I’m expecting Pérez to pitch to a lot of contact over a short start here today. We’re projecting Pérez's strikeout total at four exactly, so I’m playing his under 4.5 at -139 on DraftKings.
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Domingo Germán (NYY) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Yankees vs. Orioles||Yankees -155|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
After two very low-quality starts to begin the season, Domingo Germán has been quite good since.
Over his past four starts, Germán has posted a 2.59 ERA and a .945 WHIP while allowing just a .209 batting average. The Yankees are 4-0 in those four starts.
More importantly, Germán has recorded more than 5.5 strikeouts in all four of those starts. Additionally, he’s gone at least five innings in his last four starts and has pitched into the seventh inning in three of them.
So, Germán is making lengthy outings and striking out a decent number of hitters in the process. He should have a good outing against the lowly Orioles today, who have posted just a .658 OPS against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks.
We’re projecting Germán's strikeout total at six exactly, so I’m happy taking the value and playing the over 5.5 at +100 on DraftKings.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10