Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Bumgarner Battles the Dodgers In Los Angeles

Jun 16, 2018 5:23 PM EDT

Frustrating loss last night while I was actually in attendance a few rows behind the Mets’ dugout, as we drop the Mets-Diamondbacks Under 8 play with four outs to go. Let’s just advance to Saturday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 45-29-2, +12.9 units
Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Diamondbacks Under 8, Lugo vs. Godley (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | O/U: 7.5
8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Probable Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) vs. Alex Wood (1-5, 4.43 ERA)

In his second start of the season after returning from a broken pinky, Madison Bumgarner had an uncharacteristically off outing opposite the lowly Marlins on Monday. However, part of the blame for that can be placed on suspect umpiring behind the plate, which actually ended with the fiery southpaw getting tossed.

For his third 2018 assignment, Bumgarner figures to be much better than that. At the very least, he’ll be fired up in attempting to rebound, as he takes on his club’s eternal nemesis, the Dodgers, in a nationally-televised FOX affair. And as a result, we should get something more in line with what he spun in his season debut, when he six solid innings of two-run ball in Arizona.

But perhaps above everything, the main tendency to lean on here might be Bumgarner’s stellar track record against Los Angeles. For his career, the former World Series MVP is 15-9 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.02 WHIP versus the Dodgers but interestingly, he’s been even stingier than that when working from Chavez Ravine, recording a 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 17 career starts (and one relief appearance) at Dodger Stadium.

Alex Wood, meanwhile, is also coming off a rough performance his last time out, failing to get out of the fifth inning against Atlanta. But the 27-year-old will be in a fine position to get back on track here in this Saturday evening showdown.

For one, Wood has been considerably better at home throughout his career compared to his away outings. This is especially true since Wood arrived in Los Angeles, owning a 2.85 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 29 starts (and five relief appearances) at Chavez Ravine.

He’s also enjoyed notable success thus far in ’18 when he has the Giants on tap, holding them to a minuscule .137 batting average in their two meetings. Wood should also get a boost with Evan Longoria sidelined.

Notably, Wood holds a nifty 3.29 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which — when compared to his 4.43 ERA — points to better days sooner than later. One standout effort from either hurler can pull in this under.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)

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@MattZylbert

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