The MLB postseason has arrived!
The Wild Card Round begins today, September 30, and there are 4 games on the schedule to start the playoffs. Our MLB betting experts and systems have looked over the latest MLB odds and have made predictions and picks for all four games. So, let's dive right in and look at today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:08 p.m. | |
  | 3:08 p.m. | |
  | 6:08 p.m. | |
  | 9:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Tigers vs Guardians Best Bet: Back Skubal
By Sean Zerillo
After taking five of six games from their division rival in September, as Detroit slid to the worst divisional collapse (from a 15.5 game lead) in MLB history, the Guardians are undoubtedly the public side of this Wild Card series.
Skubal's final two outings of a potential second consecutive Cy Young campaign (2.74 xERA, 2.67 xFIP, 27.8% K-BB%, 119 Pitching+, 2.62 botERA) both came against the Guardians. In his last start, Cleveland managed to score three runs against him in a sequence where the ball didn't leave the infield (error, an infield single, a wild pitch, a balk, and a groundout). Otherwise, the southpaw has dominated across four appearances (combined 28 IP, 2 ER, 20 H, 5 BB, 40 K).
The Guardians have the least potent offense in the American League playoffs, ranking 27th against both left- and right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, 16% to 18% below the league-average offense.
Given the nature of the three-game series without an off-day and the relative shakiness of their bullpen, I also expect A.J. Hinch and the Tigers to push Skubal as far as they can in this contest. As a result, I'd personally set Skubal Over 18.5 closer to a pick 'em price than +140, and would recommend taking Over 18.5 at +110 or better.
Pick: Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 Outs (+150)
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Bet Labs' Padres vs Cubs Best Bet: System Suggests Under
By Bets Labs
When the wind is blowing in at specific stadiums known for wind sensitivity (e.g., Wrigley Field, Fenway, Oriole Park, etc.), scoring tends to be suppressed due to reduced ball carry. Betting the Under in these conditions — regardless of whether it's the regular season or postseason — has shown consistent profitability both in the short and long term.
This system has cashed 58% of its picks lifetime (575-408-57) and has generated a 13% ROI. This season, the system has gone 21-17-2 (55%) and generated a 4% ROI.
Pick: Under 7 (-110)
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Alex Hinton's Red Sox vs Yankees Best Bet: Fade Fried
By Alex Hinton
When the Yankees signed Max Fried last winter, he was expected to be the No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. However, more was expected when Cole was lost for the season and Fried delivered. He had a 2.86 ERA over 195 1/3 innings while leading the league with 19 wins and posting a 4.5 WAR.
However, Fried has a career 3.03 ERA in the regular season, so his 2025 campaign was not a major surprise. It is the postseason where he has struggled.
In 20 appearances (12 starts), Fried has a 5.10 ERA in the playoffs. He has allowed three earned runs or more in three straight and in five of his past six postseason starts. That includes five earned runs against the Padres in his final outing with the Braves.
Fried has had a great deal of success against Boston this season with a 1.96 ERA in three starts. However, he still allowed at least two earned runs in two of those outings.
Boston's team total is set at 1.5 for the first five innings. Fried has pitched into the sixth in all starts against Boston this season and in his last seven starts overall.
If Boston gets two in the first few innings, they will likely be against Fried.
Pick: Max Fried Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-140)
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Justin Van Zuiden's Reds vs Dodgers Best Bet: Expect Plenty of Runs
By Justin Van Zuiden
If any game today is going to be high scoring, I'd bank on it being this one.
Blake Snell remains an inconsistent, wild pitcher, and you just don't know what his command is going to be like. Meanwhile, Hunter Greene's power arm worries me a bit against the top half of the Dodgers order, and we have a low 7.5 run total in this game. I'll be taking the over in this one.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+110)
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