Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sep. 2: Trust the Padres to Upset D-Backs?
Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer (30).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet Mets at Nationals (1:05 p.m. ET) and Padres at Diamondbacks (4:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Following their loss on Sunday Night Baseball to the Phillies, the New York Mets will be looking for a rebound performance today behind Noah Syndergaard.
The Mets’ hard-throwing righty is coming off one of the worst starts of his career in which he allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on nine hits and three home runs against the Cubs at home on August 28.
Can he rebound today against the Nationals, who come into Monday on a four-game winning streak, boasting the second-best run differential (+123) in the National League behind the Dodgers (+217)?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines and 1-3-3 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 5-3-2, and I finished up 1.15 units for the day. The A’s and Diamondbacks each blew ninth-inning leads, spoiling a substantially more profitable afternoon.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained more than a dollar and 25 cents against the sides I played, netting 45 cents against the Rays F5 moneyline (-160 to -205), 42 cents against the Royals F5 moneyline (-108 to -150) and 27 cents against the White Sox F5 moneyline (+130 to +103).
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, Sept. 2
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Giants, Mets, Padres and Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Mets as a F5 play.
I bet all of the above plays for today, but the Mets in particular jumped off the page.
Prior to that blowup against the Cubs, Syndergaard had thrown a career-best eight straight quality starts, lowering his ERA by nearly a full run to 3.71. He erased half of that progress in three innings against Chicago.
I was surprised to find the Mets open as a short favorite against the Nationals, but even more surprised to find that the majority of tickets and cash on the moneyline are behind Washington with Joe Ross pitching.
Ross ranks in the bottom 10% among pitchers in xWOBA. Meanwhile, Syndergaard has consistently ranked in the top 10% among pitchers in recent seasons for hard-hit rate, barrel rate and xwOBA on contact.
That being said, despite the improvement he has made over the past two months, Syndergaard clearly hasn’t been comfortable on the mound, noting that he feels, “kind of unathletic,” and it’s something that he’s continually working through in every start.
I projected the Mets’ fair odds closer to -165 over the full game and -150 in the first five innings and decided to press a bit on those lines.
Ross is 3-0 over the past month, but he has 13 walks against 16 strikeouts in 25.2 innings pitched over that span, leading to an xFIP of 5.28.
In Syndergaard’s past nine starts, including that shellacking against the Cubs, he has a 60:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 57.2 innings pitched, good for a 2.82 FIP and 3.54 xFIP.
He might not feel 100 percent, but Syndergaard still ranks as a top-25 pitcher by virtually every metric, while Ross ranks near the bottom of the league and has maintained his status as an enigma as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.
As for the Diamondbacks-Padres game, San Diego has the slightly better starter as Cal Quantrill (4.11 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA) faces Mike Leake (5.11 FIP, 4.67 xFIP, 4.71 SIERA).
A former eighth-overall pick and the son of former big-league reliever Paul Quantrill, Cal has a deep arsenal that plays up with his above-average command. Since the start of July, Quantrill has a 3.49 ERA and 3.89 FIP.
The two-seamer/slider combination is his bread and butter:
Cal Quantrill, 95mph Two seamer and 87mph Slider, Overlaty/Slow pic.twitter.com/8qGN1Jtz9z
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2019
As you can see, Quantrill throws his two-seam fastball over 95 mph — well above average velocity for that pitch.
More importantly, the Diamondbacks bullpen comes into Monday in pretty rough shape, following a tight four-game series with the Dodgers:
Even with the addition of September call-ups, this bullpen should be taxed in the later innings, opening the window for the Padres to mount a comeback.
If you don’t make a pre-game wager here, I would look to play the Padres live on the run-line if they fall behind.
Arizona should have sealed a four-game sweep over the Dodgers on Sunday, but they were unable to secure the ninth inning. This is a natural letdown spot — and particularly with the current status of their key relievers.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 2
- New York Mets (-110) Game Moneyline (1 unit)
- New York Mets (-115) F5 Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+130) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+175) Game Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+186) Game Moneyline
- Toronto at Atlanta, Over 5.5 (+105) First Five Innings
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/2
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.