Once again, we find ourselves amid a full day of both baseball and World Cup action. What a life this is!
Even though all eyes are on the World Cup, there’s baseball to bet and gosh darn it, we’re going to do just that. Last Wednesday was another 2-1 day for me, bringing this article’s total up to 4-2, +1.53u on the season.
As home runs begin to pick up in the hotter months, will we continue to see offenses mash against the likes of Miles Mikolas and JP Sears today? Is there value in fading Ryan Weathers as the southpaw takes on the Detroit Tigers tonight?
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:407 PM | |
| 7:45 PM | |
| 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Yankees vs. Tigers MLB Player Prop
Spencer Torkleson
Home Run (+430)
We’re going to start ugly – but I promise it’s going to get better.
It’s been a rollercoaster season for Spencer Torkelson, who owns a career-worst 32.3% strikeout rate. Just a year after appearing to break out with 31 home runs, the former No. 1 overall pick has become very boom-or-bust.
However, a deeper look at Torkelson’s underlying metrics suggests there are reasons for optimism as the second half approaches.
Despite the elevated strikeout numbers, the Tigers first baseman has shown strong plate discipline, chasing pitches outside the zone at just a 22.1% clip (89th percentile of qualified hitters). His 11.2% walk rate and 13.2% barrel rate are also nearly identical to last season’s marks, indicating the foundation for his power production remains intact.
Tork gets a favorable matchup on Wednesday against Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers. While Weathers has improved his strikeout rate by nearly 5% this season, he’s also allowing a career-worst 11.7% barrel rate. More than a quarter of the hits he’s allowed to right-handed hitters have left the yard.
I am generally bullish on Weathers’ long-term outlook. At just 26 years old, he’s developed into an above-average starter over the last three seasons. That said, there are still flaws in his profile, and his susceptibility to hard contact remains a major concern.
Weathers has allowed a home run in five of his last six starts, including 2+ in four of those. Until he proves he can keep the ball in the park, I will look to fade him.
Pick: Spencer Torkleson Home Run (+430)
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals MLB Player Prop
Ketel Marte
Home Run (+376)
I told you it was going to get better!
Ketel Marte has slowed down a bit in the month of June, but this is the perfect matchup to buy low on the switch-hitting superstar. He draws a matchup against a southpaw that has struggled immensely this season, and if you know Marte, he crushes left-handed pitching.
This season, Marte is hitting .287 with an .874 OPS against lefties (44% of his hits have gone for extra bases). Even though Marte’s barrel rate is down a few points this season, it remains in the double digits, and his hard-hit rate has barely wavered (46.3% vs. 47).
Perhaps there is no hitter due for positive regression more than Marte, too. Marte has posted his lowest average (.262) since the 2022 season — right before his breakout. But underlying metrics suggest it’s a fluke more than anything, with his xBA at a whopping .300! That’s in the 96th percentile of all qualified hitters.
All this to say, there’s no reason to be concerned for Marte. Tack on a plus matchup against Matthew Liberatore, and we could see a huge game out of the middle infielder tonight.
Liberatore has been a home run machine of late, allowing 1+ in four of his last five starts. He has been unable to get out of the fifth inning in three straight appearances and ranks in the bottom 16% of all qualified pitchers in both barrel rate (10.6%) and hard-hit rate (45.1%).
Even in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Liberatore has been a below-average arm. If anything, the dimensions help boost Marte’s odds, which are way too high given the matchup and underlying metrics.
It’s been a quiet last couple of weeks for Marte from a home run perspective, with just one in his last 17 games. I believe that ends tonight.
Pick: Ketel Marte Home Run (+376)
Braves vs. Padres MLB Player Prop
Matt Olson
Home Run (+375)
JP Sears makes his season debut for the Padres tonight, profiling as one of the more appealing pitchers to fade in the home run market,
The soft-tossing left-hander relies on command and weak contact for success. His fastball – which he throws about 40% of the time – sits in the low 90s, leaving little margin for error. That was evident last season, when Sears surrendered 1.99 HR/9 alongside a hefty 50.7% fly-ball rate.
Simply put, this is the type of profile home run bettors love to attack: a fly-ball pitcher with below-average velocity. That combination is dangerous against a lineup like Atlanta.
Even in a left-on-left matchup, Matt Olson has proven largely split-proof. After a disappointing 2025 campaign, Olson returned to elite form in 2026. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better among all qualified hitters in xSLG (.515), hard-hit rate (50.7%), and average exit velocity (92.7 mph), while maintaining a strong 13.6% barrel rate that aligns with his career norms.
As mentioned earlier, Olson also handles southpaws well, with half of his hits going for extra bases (8 HRs). Interestingly, he’s found more power on the road, launching 15 home runs in 158 at-bats away compared to just five in 145 at-bats at Truist Park.
Given Sears’ fly-ball tendencies and Olson’s power, this matchup sets up extremely well for the Braves’ first baseman. At this price, I’m willing to take a shot on Olson, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not the only Atlanta hitter to do so tonight.
