Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sep. 4: Can Lynn Lift Rangers Past Yankees?
Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lance Lynn
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Rangers at Yankees (6:35 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After their win on Tuesday, the New York Yankees (91-49) are now one game ahead of the Houston Astros, and one half-game clear of the Los Angeles Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the MLB playoffs.
On Wednesday, they will face one of the best pitchers in the American League in Lance Lynn – who ranks first in MLB with 6.0 pitching fWAR – just ahead of Max Scherzer (5.9) and Gerrit Cole (5.7).
Can Lynn stymie the Yankees offense on Wednesday evening, or will the second-most potent offense in baseball (5.8 runs per game) add some blemishes to his 2019 stat line?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-4 against full-game moneylines and 0-4-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 0-5, and I finished down 3.09 units for the day; effectively erasing my profit from Sunday and Monday.
It was also a negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, Sept. 4
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Giants, Marlins, Reds, Tigers and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Angels, Giants, Marlins, Rangers and Twins as F5 plays.
Of note, the Yankees will be using Chad Green as part of a bullpen day against the Rangers; but I presently show value on Texas only in the first half of the game.
The Yankees are 10-2 (83.3%, +5.17 units) on the moneyline when using Green as an opener this season, and 7-2-3 (77.8%, +2.99 units) in the first-five innings (F5).
Lynn is 15-13 (53.6%, +1.02 units) on the full-game moneyline and 13-12-3 (52%, -0.47 units) on the F5 moneyline in his career-best 2019.
The righty has re-gained (and improved!) his fastball velocity following Tommy John Surgery, and his FIP is presently at its best mark since 2011:
Lynn throws his four-seam and two-seam fastball a combined 71.2% of the time – the highest mark amongst qualified starters in 2019 – just ahead of J.A. Happ (67.7%) and Brad Keller (66.8%).
His first-pitch strike rate stands at 62.3% – it’s highest mark since 2013 – and his swinging strike rate is a career-high 12.1%.
He isn’t getting batters to chase more frequently -the bigger velocity is just helping Lynn to get more swings and misses on pitches in the zone:
His whiff rate on fastballs inside the zone is a staggering 22.4% – up 5% over last season, but they also generate a lot of called strikes:
Lance Lynn, Ridiculous 96mph Two Seamer. 😳 pic.twitter.com/SoZANf7VUD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 17, 2019
I’m inclined to back Lynn – but only in the first half. The Texas bullpen ranks 23rd in FIP (4.86) on the year – and I don’t trust them to hold a potential lead against the Yankees.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 4
- Cincinnati Reds (+135) Game Moneyline
- Chicago White Sox (+270) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-1.5, +117) Game Spread
- San Francisco Giants (+113) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+136) F5 Moneyline
- Over 10 (-110), Mets at Nationals
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/4
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.