MLB Picks, Predictions: Our ‘Payoff Pitch’ Best Bets for Reds vs. Cardinals & Angels vs. Yankees (May 28)

MLB Picks, Predictions: Our ‘Payoff Pitch’ Best Bets for Reds vs. Cardinals & Angels vs. Yankees (May 28) article feature image
Credit:

Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images. Pictured: New York’s Juan Soto.

Another Tuesday during the MLB season means another episode of the "Payoff Pitch" podcast.

On today's episode, Action Network's BJ Cunningham and Tanner McGrath dish out their best bets — both first-five inning wagers — for Tuesday's MLB slate.

Check out the full episode of "Payoff Pitch" below, and continue reading for both of their best bets.


GameTime (ET)Pick
6:40 p.m.Reds F5 (-130)
9:38 p.m.Yankees F5 (-165)

Reds F5 (-130) vs. Cardinals

6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV

By Tanner McGrath

I would bet this up to -130, and I like the full-game moneyline as well because I think the Reds' bullpen is great.

I really want to target Andrew Abbott, who I discussed last week on this pod. He doesn't have good Stuff+ numbers, nor does he strike a lot of guys out, but he knows how to pitch to contact.

I don't think advanced pitching metrics are as zeroed in on changeup-heavy southpaws, especially one that forces a ton of weak contact.

He has allowed only two barrels over his past four starts with a sub 3.00 xERA.

This will be on the Reds offense to give Abbott some support against 36-year-old Kyle Gibson, whose arm is toast. His velocity is down to a career-low along with his stuff indicators and his K-BB rate. I think he's an overvalued negative regression candidate, which is why I love the Reds today.


Yankees F5 (-165) at Angels

9:38 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV

By BJ Cunningham

Nestor Cortes has been incredible this season with a 2.85 xERA.

He really only uses his fastball and his cutter, and his fastball is slower than most, averaging a little over 92 mph. It has 18.7 inches of induced vertical brake, which allows him to get on top of a lot of hitters and force a high number of fly balls. His cutter, also low velocity, has a Stuff+ rating of 107.

Griffin Canning has been terrible this season with an xERA above five. His fastball has been shelled, allowing over a .400 xWBA with a Stuff+ of 67.

The Yankees are shockingly great against the fastball and are one of the best teams in the league against Canning's second offering, the slider.

I don't like the Yankees' bullpen, and their underlying metrics show how poor they've been to this point. Since I don't want to deal with them in a late-game situation, I'll just stick with the Yankees in the first five at -165.

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