Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s slate of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, May 18.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Monday, May 18
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- Tigers F5 Moneyline (-154 on DraftKings)
- Framber Valdez over 4.5 K (-115 at betMGM)
- Reds Moneyline (-125 on DraftKings)
- Mets Over 5.5 Team Runs (-110 on DraftKings)
- Brewers vs. Cubs Under 10.5 (-105 on DraftKings)
- JT Ginn Over 17.5 Outs, Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+140 on DraftKings)
- Bryan Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116 on FanDuel)
- Giants Over 4.5 Team Runs (+105 on DraftKings)
- Giants Moneyline (+119 on DraftKings)
Guardians vs. Tigers Picks
I think it's time to buy some stock in Framber Valdez, and we get an opportunity to do that through this week's opening game in Detroit. The Tigers host the Guardians at 6:40 p.m. to get the new week of baseball started. Valdez is facing Slade Cecconi. Neither guy has been good this year. Cecconi's ERA sits at 5.40, and Framber holds an uncharacteristically high 4.32 mark.
But Valdez has looked a lot better as the year has gone on, even with that nine-hit, seven-earned-run performance two starts ago against the Red Sox. Over his last five starts, he has a 24% K rate, an 8.4% BB rate and a 49% GB rate. Those marks look a lot like what he's done throughout his very strong career. My own SIERA model has him at 3.35 over those five starts, and that's right in line with his career mark of 3.41.
Cecconi pitches to contact with an 18.5% K rate this year. Unlike his counterpart, he doesn't get a ton of ground balls, posting a 44% GB rate this season along with a 10.2% barrel rate. He doesn't generate many whiffs, and he gets hit pretty hard. He's allowing 2.49 total bases per inning, well above Valdez's mark of 1.98.
So, the model points heavily in the Tigers' favor. We're thinking Framber is back to his normal self, and we want to take advantage of the weak right-handed pitching of Cecconi against a Tigers lineup that can do some damage with its left-handed bats.
The Matchups Model over at MLB Data Warehouse also likes this spot for the Tigers offense. It looks at player performance against pitch movement profiles most similar to the ones they'll see from tonight's starter. It evaluates the Tigers lineup against the profile Cecconi shows and ranks Detroit third-best on tonight's slate behind the Dodgers and Yankees.
The bullpen advantage probably favors Cleveland, but you can always utilize the first five innings lines to keep your bet focused mostly on the starting pitchers.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline or Tigers F5 Moneyline, Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (MGM at -115)
Reds vs. Phillies Picks
The Phillies are rolling after an impressive sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh over the weekend. But they now arrive at the weak spot of their rotation in Andrew Painter. The rookie right-hander now has a 6.21 ERA in his first year in the senior circuit with a strikeout rate below 20%.
You'd think a 6-foot-7 pitcher with an upper-90s fastball would generate some strikeouts. But his four-seamer is probably his worst pitch. There's a lot more to pitching in the major leagues than throwing hard, as Painter is finding out the hard way. His heater has a 5.2% swinging-strike rate, a pathetically low number for a pitch of that variety.
It's a "flat" pitch that the Stuff+ models hate, and those models are clearly onto something. Big leaguers aren't having any trouble with it.
He's going to be forced to move away from that pitch. The good news for him is that he throws six other pitch types. We saw this last time out, as he threw the four-seamer just 24% of the time, by far his lowest usage rate of the season. And it worked in that instance, as he went five innings against the Red Sox while allowing just one run.
But what you're likely to get from more sweepers and sliders is more balls and less efficiency. And if he falls behind in counts, he'll have no choice but to go back to that fastball.
So that's a lot about Painter. I think he can survive in the majors as he tweaks some things and utilizes his secondary pitches more often, but I'm still in “bet against Painter” mode for now.
On the other side is Nick Lodolo, who had a delayed start to the year because of a blister issue. He's been greeted back to the big leagues quite rudely, giving up nine earned runs in two starts against the Astros and Nationals.
The good news is that we never expect anybody to come out of the chute looking like their normal self after an injury, especially early in the season when pitchers are still trying to find their rhythm. I like betting on good pitchers in their third or fourth start back from injury.
The good news for Lodolo is that he's throwing strikes at a decent rate (35% Ball%) and generating whiffs (12.7% SwStr%). We should see Lodolo return to form soon, and I'd like to back him as an underdog in this spot to get ahead of the correction.
Pick: Reds Moneyline
Mets vs. Nationals Picks
The Mets are my model's top projected run-scoring team against Jake Irvin. I would say the Mets have seen a lot of him playing in the same division, but that wouldn't exactly be true since the majority of this Mets lineup wasn't on the team last year.
Regardless, we know it's a good spot because Irvin just stinks against everybody. He has a 5.91 ERA this year and now possesses the league's third-worst ERA among pitchers with 30-plus starts dating back to last season. Only Germán Márquez and Jack Kochanowicz have been worse.
You also have the development that the Mets lineup is rounding into form. Carson Benge has adjusted well and sports an OPS near .900 in May. AJ Ewing has hit the ground running after his promotion, and they've gotten great performances lately from Mark Vientos and even Brett Baty. And then there's that Juan Soto guy. It's a good lineup right now.
What I don't want to do is bet on Christian Scott against a Nationals lineup that has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. So let's stick to the Mets offense.
Pick: Mets Over 5.5 Team Runs
Brewers vs. Cubs Picks
A big divisional series opens here with the top two teams in a very impressive NL Central squaring off. It will be Brandon Sproat against Shota Imanaga.
The aforementioned Matchups Model really shows us something here. Imanaga is a lefty with a low-90s fastball, a splitter and a sweeper as his main pitches. The sample size on the Brewers facing pitchers who cluster with Imanaga is moderately low, but the results just are not there. They're the worst team in the model’s team ranks tonight, with a collective .272 xwOBA against the stuff they'll see from Imanaga.
I also think we are seeing positive development from Brewers starter Brandon Sproat. The command still isn't fully there, with at least two walks in each of his last four starts, but he's suddenly punching hitters out with five-plus strikeouts in three straight outings. He's also largely avoided the long ball since giving up three homers to the White Sox in his season debut.
I have an advanced SIERA-like stat called “JA ERA” — the JA is my initials because I got lazy on the day I named it — and it shows a lot of progression from Sproat:
And man, these Brewers know how to develop players. Look at what they've done with Kyle Harrison this year, for example. And look how good Logan Henderson has been for them despite lacking size and velocity. Remarkable stuff happens in this organization, so the arrow points upward on Sproat.
To put a bow on this, my game projection model has this one at 8.4 runs scored. That is significantly below the 10.5 total currently available. I’ve been tracking this O/U model all season. This is the 31st instance of my model being two or more runs different than the market total. In the previous 30 instances, the model has produced 19 winners and 11 losers when betting in the direction of the model. That’s a ridiculous 63% win rate.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-105)
Get this one quickly. I’d bet it moves to 9.5 or 10 before long.
And we want to back Imanaga specifically as well.
Pick: Shota Imanaga Over 17.5 Outs (-158)
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Picks
The Giants haven't had a great season. They sit in fourth place in the division, and their team OPS ranks 29th in the league. They'll send Robbie Ray to the mound to face Zac Gallen. This is a big advantage for the lefty. Ray has a SIERA, in my adjusted model, of 3.52, while Gallen is 70 points higher at 4.29.
Robbie Ray isn't what he once was, but the guy still knows how to pitch. He's avoided the blow-up start this year, giving up a maximum of three earned runs in each of his nine starts. You cannot say the same for Gallen, who has four outings with more than three earned runs allowed and has surrendered 17 earned runs over his last three starts.
The Giants' bats are also starting to wake up, at least from a power perspective. They hit just 19 homers in March and April combined, or one home run every 59 plate appearances. In May, they've already hit 18 homers, or one every 33 plate appearances.
- Harrison Bader: 1.036 in 21 PA
- Luis Arraez: 1.009 in 62 PA
- Rafael Devers: .961 in 64 PA
- Casey Schmitt: .847 in 55 PA
Ramos and Adames haven't been great in May, but they've both at least looked better. Adames is hitting .303 this month while making serious improvements to his strikeout rate, dropping from 31% in March-April to 24% in May.
This seems to me like a clean Giants win on the road. They have the pitching advantage, and the offense has been much better than the books want to give them credit for.
Pick: Giants Over 4.5 Runs (+105), Giants Moneyline (+120)
Athletics vs. Angels Picks
Two ground-ball pitchers are going against each other in Anaheim tonight. JT Ginn brings a 49% ground-ball rate to the table against José Ureña’s mark of 53%.
After flashing much-improved contact abilities early in the year, the Angels have renewed their vows to the whiff. Here's their team 15-day rolling strikeout rate:
Starting pitchers are averaging 5.7 strikeouts per outing against the Angels this month. My model is a bit overheated on Ginn, I’ll admit that. The strikeout projection is north of seven tonight. His season high is eight, and he’s reached six or more strikeouts just twice in seven starts.
But this is a very good spot for Ginn. The Angels give up extra strikeouts, especially against righties, and Ginn is quite unlikely to get himself into massive trouble with the long ball given his propensity for commanding weak contact.
He’s allowed a .309 xwOBA overall over the last two years and just a .260 mark to righties. All of the frightening hitters in the Angels lineup are right-handed.
Ginn has faced the Angels just once over the last two years. That came last September when he tossed five strong innings, allowing one run on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks.
I'm going with the projections and getting some action down on Ginn tonight. The even-money line sits at 5.5 on his strikeout total. Given his lack of elite whiff ability, I’d rather buy one strikeout down to over 4.5 (-180) and pair it with a leg on his outs line.
Pick: Ginn Over 16.5 Outs (-103) and Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-180) :: Parlay for +140
White Sox vs. Mariners Picks
Two pretty interesting pitchers are going in this one. The giant Noah Schultz heads to Seattle to face Bryan Woo. Schultz hasn't had the best time in the majors so far, posting a 4.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. His problem has been walks. He's issued 21 free passes in 29.1 innings. He doesn't have a single pitch with a ball rate below the league average. It looks pretty disastrous for him from a command standpoint.
But Bryan Woo is my focal point. He's my projection model's top fantasy-point projection arm on the board tonight against this White Sox lineup that can strike out a bunch.
This game being in Seattle matters. It's been favorable for pitchers for quite some time. The Mariners staff isn't having its usual level of success this year, but nothing about the park has changed, and we're still seeing more strikeouts in games played there — a 24% strikeout rate in Seattle games compared to 22% everywhere else.
Woo enters this matchup with back-to-back nine-strikeout games and 28 total whiffs across those outings against the Braves and Astros.
The White Sox are second in the league in home runs now, so you can never fully count on a starting pitcher to stay under an earned-runs prop. But opposing starters are usually piling up strikeouts and working efficiently if they're throwing enough strikes to force the White Sox to swing the bats.
This is an offense that likes to walk and likes to hit the long ball. Woo is going to come right after them, and that should work in his favor tonight.
Pick: Bryan Woo 7+ Strikeouts (+116 FanDuel)
Jon Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, May 18
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Tigers F5 Moneyline (-154 on DraftKings)
- Framber Valdez over 4.5 K (-115 at betMGM)
- Reds Moneyline (-125 on DraftKings)
- Mets Over 5.5 Team Runs (-110 on DraftKings)
- Brewers vs. Cubs Under 10.5 (-105 on DraftKings)
- JT Ginn Over 17.5 Outs, Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+140 on DraftKings)
- Bryan Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116 on FanDuel)
- Giants Over 4.5 Team Runs (+105 on DraftKings)
- Giants Moneyline (+119 on DraftKings)
