Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Total base prop guru Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, March 13.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, May 13
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Bobby Witt Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Bobby Witt Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
- Marlins Score First
- Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 HRR
- Padres vs Brewers NRFI
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases
Royals vs White Sox Picks
The Royals are set to square off with the White Sox on Wednesday night in what will be the second of a three-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.
Kansas City right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo will take the mound for the visiting Royals, while White Sox Southpaw Noah Schultz will be on the bump for Chicago.
Schultz has had a very up-and-down start to his first year in the Big Leagues, and is currently running a 4.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. I have faith in his long-term upside because of his 22% strikeout rate and versatile arsenal, but I’m concerned about his control and command of that arsenal.
Kansas City’s lineup is not in the best form either — the Royals have lost three of their past five.
While the lineup has mostly struggled, Bobby Witt Jr. has started to find his rhythm in the batter’s box, and I think he’s got a good matchup against Schultz.
If Schultz fails to establish his four-seam fastball early, he will likely be forced to resort to his off-speed arsenal, which includes a sweeper, sinker, and change-up. And given Schultz's lack of command over his past three outings, I expect the Sox left-hander to face a lot of problems matched up with an elite contact hitter with tremendous patience.
Ultimately, I’m banking on Witt causing chaos on the basepaths.
Pick: Bobby Witt Over 1.5 Total Bases | Bobby Witt Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
Marlins vs Twins Picks
25-year-old right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson will take the mound for the Twins, while Miami right-handed pitcher Max Meyer will be on the bump for the Marlins.
This contest features two teams that have struggled mightily over the first six weeks of the season, as both clubs enter this matchup with losing records. Both are in dire need of a winning streak.
Despite the Twins entering this game with a two-game win streak and playing in the comfort of their own ballpark, I am very worried about Woods Richardson, given his lackluster start to the season. Across his first eight outings, the Twins’ righty has recorded a dreadful 6.92 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Meyer is trending in the opposite direction, having posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
I’m going with a weird betting angle and taking the Marlins to score the first run in this game.
Aside from the fact that Miami is playing on the road and thus batting first, I think the Fish have a huge pitching advantage.
At the same time, I think Kyle Stowers should have a big night.
Woods Richardson struggles against Southpaws, and Stowers has already knocked an extra-base hit against Minnesota’s righty.
Pick: Marlins Score First | Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 HRR
Padres vs Brewers Picks
Jacob Misiorowski vs. Michael King is a great starting pitching matchup.
Misiorowski has been exceptional across his first eight starts of the season (44 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, MLB-leading 70 strikeouts), and he will surely be looking to continue his dominance on the mound versus a Padres bunch that has had a very up-and-down campaign.
Meanwhile, King has been similarly good (45 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). He’s been rather consistent over the past few years, recording a 3.04 ERA since entering San Diego’s rotation in 2024.
Runs should be at a premium in this matchup, and I’m banking on none coming in the first frame.
That said, King tends to wear down as the game progresses, which should open up some opportunity for Jackson Chourio.
Although Chourio is 0-for-3 against King in the prior head-to-head meetings, I think he’s due. So far this season, King has pitched worse on the road (3.18 ERA) than at home (2.35 ERA), and he’s struggled more against righties (.335 wOBA allowed) than lefties (.236 wOBA allowed).
Pick: NRFI | Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases
Ryan Minion's MLB Predictions and Picks for Wednesday, May 13
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Bobby Witt Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Bobby Witt Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
- Marlins Score First
- Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 HRR
- Padres vs Brewers NRFI
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases
