What a day of gambling we have ahead of us.
The NBA playoffs continue at 1 p.m. ET today. The NHL playoffs kick off today at 3 p.m. ET.
But baseball doesn’t stop for anybody. We have another 15-game slate on deck.
And our betting experts don’t stop for anybody — read on for their MLB picks, predictions, and 4 best bets for today.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
 | All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs Yankees Run Line Picks
By Sean Paul
Noah Cameron's first outing at Yankee Stadium could be a tough one.
I didn't value him too highly entering the year since his stuff isn't exactly MLB-caliber. He managed to make it work last year, but homers will eventually haunt him with his fly-ball rate and low-velocity fastball.
While the Yankees are lefty-heavy, some of these lefties can hit either side. Cody Bellinger posts close to even splits, and Ben Rice has shown improvements against southpaws this year.
Aaron Boone has been hesitant to play Rice against lefties, but Rice is forcing his manager's hand.
Give me any plus-money number on the run line with New York.
Read Paul's full Yankees-Royals breakdown here:
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100 or Better)
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Tigers vs Red Sox Over/Under Picks
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Under, making the line 6.74 while the consensus total sits between 7 and 7.5.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Zerillo notes in the Action App that he would play this number at either Under 7.5 (-127) or Under 7 (-103).
But I'm willing to push the envelope a bit for two reasons.
First, Tarik Skubal is on the mound for the Tigers, and he should shut down a Red Sox lineup with four important left-handed hitters (Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Marcelo Mayer). Perhaps Alex Cora platoons his lineup a bit, getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the mix, but the Sox are still running a 90 wRC+ against Southpaws on the season (17th among MLB lineups).
Second, we're expecting bad weather in Boston. With temperatures in the mid-40s to low-50s and winds blowing in from right-center field, I'm not expecting many long fly balls.
Pick: Under 7 (-105 or Better)
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Cardinals vs Astros Team Total Picks
By Matt Trollo
Andre Pallante averaged estimators around 4.5, well below his 5.31 ERA last year, thanks to a 62.2 LOB%.
Still, with just a 6.9% K-BB, it was his ability to generate ground balls (59.1%) and limit hard contact (39.9%), especially in the air (6.5% Barrels/BBE), that left him even marginally useful, though certainly a below-average pitcher.
Pallante actually has a better ERA (4.80), while his peripherals have completely cratered in three starts this year.
First, he’s failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in any of his three starts (-1.4% K-BB). The ground ball rate is down to 49.1%, but that’s more of a one-game fluke (31.8%) against the Red Sox. However, he’s also posted at least a 40% hard-hit rate in each of his three starts.
While Pitching Bot thinks he’s essentially the same guy (4.99 Bot ERA to 4.80), Location+ points to his cratering with a 10-point drop (101 – 91), resulting in a 13-point drop in his Pitching+ (98 – 85).
The Houston offense is off to a hot start (123 wRC+ vs RHP), especially at home (126 wRC+). Over a larger sample, the projected lineup has a 107 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
If a predominantly right-handed lineup for Houston is a concern, batters from either side of the plate are between a .321 and .343 wOBA and xwOBA against Pallante since the start of the 2025 season.
It’s true the Cardinals have one of the better defenses in the league (projected lineup 20 Fielding Run Value), but the bullpen has been atrocious (5.30 FIP/4.82 xFIP/4.52 SIERA).
It’s only projected to be in the 70s in Houston on Saturday, but the threat of rain should keep the roof closed (as it almost always is), giving us a perfectly neutral run environment (100 Park Run Factor via Statcast). Willie Traynor is similarly neutral behind the plate most times.
Even without Pallante’s further decline this season, I would expect the Astros to exceed their 4.5 team run total.
Read Trollo's full Opening Pitch column for Saturday here:
Pick: Astros TT Over 4.5 (-140 or Better)
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Padres vs Angels Total Picks
The Padres and Angels are both starting their worst rotation pitchers on Saturday.
Yusei Kikuchi owns a 7.50 ERA, with a 6.17 xERA and 4.49 SIERA. He is due for some regression, given that his peripherals are better than his ERA, but not enough to say he has pitched anything less than horrible.
This Angels' starter today is a far cry from Friday's starter, Jose Soriano, who holds baseball's best ERA with the most strikeouts thus far.
Meanwhile, the Padres are starting German Marquez. His ERA is a gaudy 5.54, while his peripherals do not suggest that it is luck inflating it this high. A 5.51 xERA and 4.64 SIERA reflect that his early performance was as mediocre as advertised.
Marquez has not been a capable MLB starter since 2022. His ERA since 2023 is 6.39 through 163 and 1/3 innings. Even with his recovery from Tommy John surgery, this is enough of a sample to acknowledge his place at the bottom of baseball's SP barrel.
For data's sake, the Angels rank 13th among MLB lineups against right-handed pitchers, while the Padres rank 21st against left-handed pitchers.
Lefty-righty splits would not heavily favor either team against the respective pitcher they face Saturday. However, we can eschew these data points given early-season variance and the fact that these starters are among the league's worst.
Also, the Padres were closer to league average last season in their lefty split and carried over nearly the same offensive roster. This season's sample has the third-fewest plate appearances against Southpaws.
With the poor starting pitchers, a hitter-friendly home park in Anaheim, the wind blowing out on a warm evening, and the Angels' terrible bullpen this past week, the Over is the play.
Read Kev's full Padres-Angels preview here:
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110 or Better)
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Zerillo's Full Action App Card for Saturday
Need more picks for Saturday? It's always wise to see what Zerillo is betting on!
If you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all your favorite experts.
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