MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Starting-Pitching Unders For Wednesday Night (May 5)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Adbert Alzolay
- Both of our featured pitchers are having strong seasons, but their strikeout totals are inflated.
- MLB betting analyst Kevin Davis breaks down his two favorite strikeout props for Wednesday.
- Find out which prices you should fade the Brewers' Freddy Peralta and the Cubs' Adbert Alzolay at.
On a loaded Wednesday MLB slate, there are two strikeout prop unders that I like.
For those new to this series, I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props below.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 23-18, +1.52 Units, +3.7% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Freddy Peralta Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-104)
|Brewers at Phillies||Brewers -139|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Freddy Peralta, like most of the Brewers' starting rotation, is one of the best pitchers who you have not heard about. He has a high strikeout rate and a low ERA. However, despite his brilliance, he typically pitches for only five innings a start.
The question is whether Peralta will be in Wednesday's game long enough to go over his total of 7.5 strikeouts.
Peralta has a strikeout rate of 14.46 strikeouts per nine innings. In a typical five inning start this season, he would have eight strikeouts. For him to go over his strikeout total on Wednesday, he must either pitch more innings than usual or continue to strikeout out batters at his current strikeout rate.
Entering the season, Peralta was projected to average 12.19 strikeouts per nine innings. Over the course of a typical start, that would result in only 6.78 strikeouts. I believe that he'll revert to his pre-season strikeout projections.
Additionally, I have a hard time seeing how Peralta will get more innings. In his last start against the Dodgers, he pitched for only six innings despite allowing only one run and one hit.
Currently the average Brewers starting pitcher averages around five innings per start. This is despite Milwaukee starters having a collective xFIP of 3.31, the fifth-best in the league. The Brewers are not leaving Peralta in the game long enough for him to have eight or more strikeouts, which is why I like the under.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts (up to -120)
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
Adbert Alzolay Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)
|Dodgers at Cubs||Dodgers -175|
|Time||7:40 p.m. ET|
I like Cubs' rookie starting pitcher. Despite being a back of the rotation pitcher with limited experience, Alzolay is putting together a strong season — he's part of the reason I'm recommending a bet on the Cubs moneyline tonight.
However, his strikeout total has been set at 6.5, which appears to be too high.
Alzolay has some power as he is currently averaging 9.86 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he's also averaging about 5 1/3 innings per start. Surprisingly, this is high for a Cubs starting pitcher as the average Cubs starter pitches for fewer than 4 2/3 innings per start, the second-lowest in the league. With Alzolay’s current strikeout rate, he would have to pitch for 6 1/3 innings to go over his strikeout total.
In his last start against the Braves, he pitched for six innings, so he could go over his strikeout total. However, the Dodgers' lineup is not particularly strikeout prone as they average only 8.5 strikeouts per game, the ninth-best in the league.
Picking a rookie pitcher to go over his strikeout total on a team that uses starting pitchers sparingly seems like a bad bet, which is I like Alzolay’s under even at -145 odds.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (up to -165)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 8