MLB Player Props: The Return of The Cobbler
Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Shoemaker.
- Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/unders for Matt Shoemaker and Joey Lucchesi.
When I last left you on Friday, I provided three prop picks — all overs. The man featured in the title was Carlos Carrasco, with the pick being over 7.5 strikeouts. It’s tough to get eight Ks when you get only two outs of any kind, though, as he was pummeled by the Royals. Luckily, the other two fellas both hit their overs to salvage the rest of the night.
Here’s to hoping this week is more like two weeks ago, and less like last week.
MLB Player Props, Monday April 15
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:50 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Blue Jays SP Matt Shoemaker
The Pick: Over 5 (-114)
Matt “The Cobbler” Shoemaker has been a fine and dandy pickup for the Blue Jays, as he boasts a sub-1 ERA for his new squad. The former Angel struck out seven and eight batters in his first two starts, respectively, but managed just four in his last go around against the Red Sox.
We’re projecting him to get back on the right track tonight in Minnesota, where 50-degree temperatures and winds blowing in should make for a strong pitching atmosphere.
With a strikeout projection of 7.4, we expect 2.2 strikeouts more than the implied odds. The 44% differential makes this the strongest prop of the day at the time of publication.
Padres SP Joey Lucchesi
The Pick: Over 6 (-114)
Joey Lucchesi also had a subpar outing last go around, as he allowed seven runs to the Giants in just four innings. Hopefully he can turn things around back at home against a Rockies lineup that has been atrocious, scoring less than three runs per game. That lack of pop has also come with strikeouts aplenty, as they rank 6th in the league in strikeouts per at bat.
The Padres’ southpaw continues to maintain a career average north of 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and that, combined with the Rockies’ free-swinging lineup, has us projecting him for 7.6 strikeouts tonight.