Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Saturday, April 4.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
New development: each Saturday, Action Network Rookie reliever Matt Trollo will fill in for Sean Zerillo. Exciting!
Still, as always, Zerillo's projections for every MLB game on Saturday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are Trollo's MLB predictions and picks for Saturday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Saturday, April 4
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- Red Sox F5 (-150 up to -165) (0.75u) (Full game fine too, but show more value F5)
- Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (+130 down to +110) (0.5u)
- Diamondbacks F5 (-110 up to -130) (0.55u)
- Mariners o4.5 (-146 up to -165) (1.46u drop to 0.5 above -150)
Padres vs Red Sox Picks
Randy Vasquez entered the 2025 season with a career 6.3 K-BB% that peaked at 9% his rookie year and has declined every season since. A 2 mph pre-season velocity spike and accompanying 13.5 K-BB% in 18.1 innings opened some eyes and he even held some of it in his first start with six shutout innings against the Tigers, striking out eight.
However, there was just one problem, his velocity dropped around four mph from the beginning of the start through the end.
He was still up 1.5 mph from last year on average, but couldn’t hold is velocity deep into the game. Shorter outings are sometimes the reason behind many pre-season velocity spikes.
I’m open to the possibility that Vasquez has improved, but with a career .359 against LHBs, he has a long way to go.
Still, its’ not so much that I’m attacking Vasquez than the fact that I’m much higher on the other pitcher. Connelly Early blasted onto the scene with a 31.6 K-BB% in four late season starts and had another strong showing against the Yankees in the post-season.
Yet, even with a solid spring, he was not assured a starting role, as the Red Sox made moves to boost their rotation with Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez. That’s cool. He merely responded by throwing 5.1 innings of one run ball in Cincinnati in his first start, striking out six.
In five major league starts, Early has flashed a repertoire earning a 3.54 Bot ERA and 109 Pitching+ to go along with a 14.1 SwStr% and just four barrels.
When you consider that the Red Sox have a small offensive edge (projected lineup 111 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, as opposed to SD 108 vs LHP) plus perhaps the top defensive and base running lineup in the league (projected lineup +46 Defensive Run Value & +17 Base Running Runs last year), it turns into a large overall edge even against an improved version of Vasquez.
I’m going back to the well with a Boston F5 in this one (-145). It’s a selection I pushed with on Friday in the most frustrating way. The Red Sox carried a 2-0 lead into the fifth, gave both back and then took the lead for good again in the sixth. Be better.
Pick: Red Sox F5 (-150 up to -165) (0.75u) (Full game fine too, but show more value F5)
Cubs vs Guardians picks
Rotowire’s projected four through nine batters in the Cleveland lineup all exceed a 26.5 K% against LHP since last year.
Shota Imanaga displayed a near two mph velocity spike (92.5 mph) this pre-season (also 0.8 mph harder than his 2024) and struck out 18 of 77 batters with an 18.7 SwStr%.
He held most of that in his first start (92.1 mph), in which he struck out seven of 22 Nationals with a 19.5 SwStr% and 18.9 iVB (induced vertical break – rising fastball). For reference, he averaged an 18.3 iVB in his rookie season and 18.0 last year.
Additionally, Cleveland is a great park for a left-handed fly ball pitcher with a league low 75 HR factor for RHBs (Statcast 3-year).
The below price is availabe on FanDuel at the time of this writing.
Pick: Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (+130 down to +110) 0.5u
Braves vs Diamondbacks picks
It’s been a rough series, suffering a blowout loss on Thursday and then a 0-0 game in the ninth turning into a 2-0 loss with back to back home runs off Paul Sewald on Friday.
But I’m going back to the well for a third straight day with the Diamondbacks.
Bryce Elder had a nice first start against the A’s, shutting them out for six innings with five strikeouts, but he also displayed a 4.29 SIERA and 4.73 xERA last season. Nor was his pitch modeling improved from last season in his initial 2026 start (4.68 Bot ERA to 4.61, 99 Pitching+ to 98).
The slider (55 PB, 110 P+) was Elder’s only above average pitch last year and fell below average against the A’s, despite his success.
Meanwhile, Mike Soroka merely struck out 10 of the 20 Tigers he faced, including an immaculate inning in his first effort for the D’Backs. He threw 48.3% curveballs (55 PB, 110 P+), generating a 44 CSW% after throwing the pitch 34.6% last year.
Is this a new Soroka? Doesn’t have to be because he was better than most people think last year (17.4 K-BB%, 3.78 SIERA, 3.53 xERA), but flew under the radar with a 67.5 LOB% driving a 4.52 ERA.
Both teams are strong defensively with comparable offenses. Arizona is at home with the better base running (projected LU +10 BRR vs 0 for Braves) in addition to the better starting pitcher.
On Saturday, I’m throwing out the bullpen, showing better value on the F5.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 (-110 up to -130) 0.55u
Mariners vs Angels picks
Jack Kochanowicz generally has more Ks in his name than his box score, so it was a bit stunning when he sent down even three of 22 Astros in his first start. He still surrendered more walks (five) and runs (six).
Batters from either side of the plate are within a .359 to .393 wOBA and xwOBA against JK since last season and he doesn’t have a single estimator below five over that span. This includes a 5.22 Pitching Bot ERA.
The Mariners had a team 116 wRC+ on the road last year and get a significant park upgrade with the expectation of some beautiful hitting weather with a forecast 80 degrees plus 10 mph winds out to CF. Angel Stadium is already an extremely power friendly and positive run environment (102 Park Run Factor) on a neutral day.
Seattle’s projected lineup averages a 127 wRC+ against RHP since last season. Cal Raleigh destroys sinkers (5.9 wSI/C), a pitch that Kochanowicz throws 46.7% of the time. In fact, he doesn’t have a single pitch level matchup (using run values) in his favor in this lineup.
If you need any additional incentive, the Angels may have the worst defense (proj. LU -47 Fielding Run Value last year) along with one of the worst bullpens (4.29 FIP Fangraphs projection) in the league.
Some books are offering 5.5 at plus money, but FanDuel is offering the price below at the time of writing.
Pick: Mariners o4.5 (-146 up to -165) (1.46u drop to 0.5 above -150)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, April 4
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Red Sox F5 (-150 up to -165) (0.75u) (Full game fine too, but show more value F5)
- Shota Imanaga o5.5 Ks (+130 down to +110) (0.5u)
- Diamondbacks F5 (-110 up to -130) (0.55u)
- Mariners o4.5 (-146 up to -165) (1.46u drop to 0.5 above -150)
