Sunday MLB Player Props & Picks: 2 Bets for Corey Kluber and Jeimer Candelario (May 22)
Mike Carlson/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Kluber.
The rain may have washed away one of our plays from yesterday, but the good thing is that it just rolls over to today. Although yesterday’s pick is not the only play as there’s another plus-money piece that can be added on.
Then there’s a crafty righty who is starting against a divisional rival that has not seen him very well, and on top of that, his stuff only appears to be getting better.
Enough with the mystery; let’s dive into the best prop bets for today’s slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Corey Kluber Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles||Orioles +150|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Rays -165||DraftKings|
Baltimore is a team to attack when it comes to strikeout props. The Orioles will enter this game seventh in the majors in Strikeout Rate, and today they’ll get to face Corey Kluber, who has faired well against this lineup in the past.
During his long tenure in the American League, Kluber has seen the Orioles quite a bit. The current Orioles lineup has accumulated 69 at-bats against him. In all, they have struck out over 25 percent of the time against Kluber.
The Klubot added to those stats in his first start of the season, which came against Baltimore. In that outing, his command was a bit off as he walked three, but he still managed to hold the Orioles scoreless into the fifth inning while striking out five batters.
Despite his ERA being 4.29, there are plenty of indications that Kluber’s stuff is still excellent. He’s in the top 15 percent of qualified pitchers in Chase Rate and, in turn, has a Strikeout Rate that ranks in the top half of the league.
The punch-outs have also been flowing of late. He’s blown over this number in two of his last three starts and should go over again today, given how the Orioles have faired.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Jeimer Candelario Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
|Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians||Guardians -190|
|First Pitch||1:40 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Guardians -190||DraftKings|
This selection goes hand-in-hand with yesterday’s prop, as this matchup was rained out yesterday. So if you want to know how I think Shane Bieber will fare in this game, click here.
With an extra day to research, I’ve come across a particular hitter who has not seen the ball well against Bieber. That hitter is Jeimer Candelario. Candelario is off to a rough start at the dish this season as he comes in hitting just .201 with three homers and 12 RBIs. His average may very well drop below the Mendoza line when you look at his history against Bieber.
The two have squared off 21 times in their respective careers, and Bieber has dominated Candelario thus far. He is only 3-for-21 against him, and the thing that stands out the most are the Strikeout and Whiff Rates. Candelario has barely touched Bieber’s stuff as he has a 52.4 percent Strikeout Rate and a 42.5 percent Whiff Rate.
As I went through in yesterday’s article, I expect Bieber to have another dominant outing against this Detroit team, and adding in Candelario’s struggles is a nice plus-money piece to tack on here.
Pick: Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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