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MLB Player Prop Picks: Betting Overs on Cal Quantrill & J.D. Martinez (Wednesday, May 25)

MLB Player Prop Picks: Betting Overs on Cal Quantrill & J.D. Martinez (Wednesday, May 25) article feature image
Credit:

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: J.D. Martinez.

  • Using our Action Labs Player Props tool, Tanner McGrath's two favorite picks for Wednesday in MLB come at night.
  • First, Cal Quantrill faces a stout Astros offense, and then J.D. Martinez and the red-hot Red Sox face Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.
  • Check out McGrath's picks and breakdowns for the pair below.

Wednesday’s MLB slate has plenty of day games, but I’ve found two players at night who I believe provide value in the player props market.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Cal Quantrill over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Guardians @ Astros
First Pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

Cal Quantrill finally got plugged into the Guardians’ rotation in May of last year, and it’s been smooth sailing since.

Quantrill posted a 3.12 ERA in his 22 starts in 2021 and is at 3.48 ERA through his first seven starts this year. He’s failed to complete five full innings in just one of those seven starts and is averaging almost six innings per start this season.

The Guardians clearly trust him, since he has failed to eclipse 90 pitches in only his first start this season, when he wasn’t fully stretched out to pitch deep into games.

Quantrill is by no means a strikeout machine, but his length has given him results. Since getting that first start against the White Sox on May 31 of last season, Quantrill has cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 19 starts.

He’s only managed to do that in three of his first six starts this season, but those three wins have happened in the last four starts. Quantrill even struck out four Angels and seven Padres, two of the hottest lineups in the league.

Cal Quantrill, 4th and 5th Ks. pic.twitter.com/Olohjtms0a

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2022

It’ll be really tough to get strikes past the Astros, but the Houston lineup is more vulnerable this season. After finishing with the second-best strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers last year, the Astros have slipped to eighth in that category.

I believe in Quantrill’s ability to pitch deep into games, and I’ll back him to get more than three today. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Quantrill for 4.1 Ks Wednesday evening, which gives me enough value to bet this line.

Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-140)

Action Labs Grade: 6/10

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JD Martinez over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Red Sox @ White Sox
First Pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

Boston has been on fire, leading MLB in wRC+ (145), OPS (.860) and ISO (.232) over the last two weeks. The Red Sox have scored 49 runs just over the past five games.

Alex Cora and Chaim Bloom remained patient with the Red Sox lineup, and it’s begun to pay off. This team has been punishing the ball all season, but the balls weren’t finding the gap.

Now, they are.

There are plenty of Boston hitters to point to, but J.D. Martinez deserves the biggest callout. Rafael Devers leads the team in WAR, but Martinez leads the team in OPS+. He has a 1.005 OPS and a 182 OPS+ so far in 2022.

Martinez’s latest hot run at the plate is insane. He’s slashing .425/.454/.675 during May, recording 12 extra-base hits over his last 80 at-bats. At one point, he had an 18-game hit streak going.

JD Martinez During 18 Game Hitting Streak (Current)
.387 BA
29 Hits
13 RBI
9 Runs
🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/v7mgH5wUKo

— MLBMuse (@TheMLBMuse) May 18, 2022

Predictably, this has been huge for Martinez backers. He’s cashed his bases total in 17 of his last 23 games (74%), and I like Martinez to cash again today.

Lucas Gioltio is a powerful pitcher, but he’s struggled against Martinez in the past. In 11 lifetime plate appearances, Martinez is 5-for-10 against Giolito with an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph and 18.6-degree launch angle.

Giolito tries to set hitters up with a four-seam fastball before catching them off guard with a changeup. That two-pitch mix has been an incredibly powerful combination this season, and the White Sox righty is striking out over 12 batters per nine innings so far this season.

But I’d be careful trying to sneak those pitches by Martinez, who has a +6 Run Value against the four-seam this season while slugging .675 on the pitch. And while he’s only seen 37 changeups this year, he’s slugging .600 against them.

Credit: Baseball Savant.

At anything better than even money, I love Martinez to rake in this matchup against Giolito and the White Sox bullpen.

Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+115)

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