Friday MLB Player Props & Picks: 3 Bets for Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler Wells (May 20)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Wells
- There's one MLB strikeout prop that is showing an extreme edge in our Action Labs Player Props tool for Friday.
- In addition to that, there's two position player props where the edge looks to be with the betting public.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this picks, including betting analysis.
This is how we do it. It’s Friday night and I feel alright. The party is here at the Action Network.
I am 34 years old.
Friday night features a full slate of games and there are some excellent values floating around in the prop market.
With some good plus money picks on the board, I’ll be backing a Cardinals hitter, a streaking Rockies hitter and an Orioles pitcher. Let’s take a look at why I’m backing these bad boys Friday night.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Paul Goldschmidt — Over 0.5 RBI (+110)
|Cardinals vs. Pirates||Cardinals -145|
|First Pitch||6:35 p.m. ET|
Paul Goldschmidt is as reliable of a run producer as anyone in the game. He’s been especially adept at knocking in runs against RHP on the road this season. Especially over the past couple of weeks.
In the Cardinals’ last series at the New York Mets, Goldschmidt drove in seven runs, all against RHP, and he is facing a pitcher in the Pirates’ Zach Thompson who gives up a fair amount of base runners at home.
Additionally, Thompson is walking close to four per nine innings (3.77 BB/9) and has a 1.26 HR/9 at home so far this season. Pair that with a 4.91 FIP and it indicates that Goldschmidt may have some run producing opportunities.
If Goldschmidt doesn’t get it done against Thompson, the Pirates’ bullpen has been bottom-five in FIP and bottom-10 in ERA over the past couple of weeks, meaning there should be plenty of chances for Goldschmidt to push across a run in this game.
Considering the Cards’ proclivity to run in order to create scoring opportunities, it seems like there’s a good chance Goldschmidt will find himself up with runners in scoring position tonight. His over 0.5 RBI mark is in plus money and if it stays there it cold be a great value.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt over 0.5 RBI (+110)
Tyler Wells — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Rays vs. Orioles||Rays -130|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
As much as offenses complain about the new left field configuration of Camden Yards, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff seems to be loving it.
Tyler Wells has dramatic home/road splits in 2022 and he’s back on the mound at home, where he seems to be pitching with confidence. And why wouldn’t he?
So far this season, Wells is sporting an even 6 K/9 and he’ll be taking on an offense that has a 25.6 K% against RHP on the road over the past couple of weeks.
While the Rays’ offense is excellent, it still has some swing and miss in it.
Additionally, Action Labs projects Wells to rack up 5.6 K’s in Friday night’s match up, so 3.5 should be a reasonable hurdle to clear. So far this season, Wells has struck out at least three batters in all three of his home starts, but has eclipsed that mark only once.
However, the system likes him to get at least four Friday night and I do too.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Ryan McMahon — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Editor’s note: This game has been postponed because of inclement weather.
|Mets vs. Rockies||Mets -140|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
Ryan McMahon has been on a tear at home over the Rockies’ recent home stand and he looks to keep that going Friday night.
Over his last 12 home games, McMahon has amassed 16 hits, six of which were extra-base hits. Additionally, in seven of those 12 games he had multi-hit games.
He’s facing Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled on the road so far this season. Opponents are slugging .422 against Carrasco on the road and he’s averaging 1.13 HR/9. This could be a good opportunity for McMahon to continue his hot hitting.
McMahon also has a .323 ISO at home against RHP, meaning he may eclipse the total base mark with just one swing of the bat. With plus money, McMahon seems like a great value to hit his way to the over Friday night.
Pick: McMahon over 1.5 Total Bases