MLB Player Props Picks Today | How to Bet Max Scherzer’s Strikeout Total (October 7)
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer
- A full MLB playoff slate means plenty of betting options in the props market.
- From tonight's finale, there is particular value in the strikeout prop of New York ace Max Scherzer.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the props market from today's MLB postseason games.
The first day of the MLB postseason is here. There are four juicy wild-card games that will be played between noon and midnight.
There also are eight aces on the mound and a number of high-level position players we can bet on in the props market. I've found two props I like using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jose Quintana Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Cardinals vs Phillies|
|First Pitch||2:07 p.m. ET|
I think Jose Quintana is being slightly undervalued.
The public is looking at Oliver Marmol and asking, "Why not Adam Wainwright or Jordan Montgomery?" I am asking the same question, but it doesn't mean the public fading him is opening some value on him.
People forget that:
- Quintana posted a 0.81 ERA and a 1.88 FIP in September
- The Cardinals won four of Quintana's last six starts
- Quintana has cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in 21 of 31 starts this season
- Quintana has cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in five straight games
- Quintana struck out four Phillies over just 93 pitches in the one start against them this season
I think 3.5 strikeouts is slightly low, especially considering that the Phillies struck out at the fourth-highest rate against southpaws over the final month of the season.
Plus, projections adore Quintana today, with three different models projecting Quintana to go over:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 4.8 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.3 Ks
- FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 5.2 Ks
Take the value with Quintana in this one.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Max Scherzer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
|Padres @ Mets|
|First Pitch||8:07 p.m. ET|
Max Scherzer has owned the Padres. He's made 17 career starts against San Diego with a 2.88 ERA and a 12.3 K/9. It's been pure dominance.
Scherzer has also cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his six starts against San Diego dating back to the beginning of last year. He's struck out 46 Padres over 37 1/3 innings in that span.
The Padres don't strike out that much, but Scherzer's fastball-slider combination is a force of nature that has fooled SoCal baseball players for years.
Max Scherzer, 96mph Fastball and 86mph Slider, Overlay pic.twitter.com/tPq1TaPGSn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2022
Expanding a little bit, Scherzer cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in 18 of 23 starts this season. He's cashed over 5.5 Ks in 80% of his starts dating back to last season.
Scherzer is money for those backing him.
And like Quintana, Scherzer has three different models projecting him to go well over his strikeout total.
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 6.8 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 6.5 Ks
- FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 7.0 Ks
Back Scherzer to put up another monster strikeout performance against the Padres.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10