On this Saturday, a pair of hitters I like today are JJ Bleday and Liam Hicks. Meanwhile, Landen Roupp will take the mound against the Pirates in one the final games on the day.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Saturday, May 9.
MLB Player Props Today
- J.J. Bleday Over 1.5 Total Bases (+153, DraftKings)
- Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, BetMGM)
- Landen Roupp Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
Astros vs Reds Player Props
A former first-rounder in 2019, Bleday is already on his third team in five years. With a negative WAR in three of his first four seasons, some may have already deemed him a bust. However, Bleday is doing his best to rewrite that narrative in Cincinnati.
In his first 11 games as a Red, Bleday is slashing .278/.395/667 with four home runs and seven runs scored in. Three of his home runs have come in his last six games, and he was a popular pick in the gambling community for another last night. While Bleday went 0-for-3 with a walk, he has another good matchup today.
Bleday is 6-for-10 (.600) with three doubles, two RBI, and a 1.567 OPS against Spencer Arrighetti. The Astros right-hander is off to a strong start, but he does have a 1.30 WHIP, thanks to 14 walks. He has also given up three doubles to left-handed hitters.
Bleday has 10 hits thus far, and nine of them have been against right-handed pitchers. Of those nine hits, six have gone for extra bases with two doubles and the aforementioned four home runs. With a hit in six of his last seven games, Bleday has recorded two total bases in five of those games. He has a great price for two total bases today.
Pick: J.J. Bleday Over 1.5 Total Bases
Nationals vs Marlins Player Props
Like Bleday, Hicks entered last night's game hot and did not get in a hit in the series opener after entering as a pinch hitter. However, he is still hitting .316 with nine home runs, 34 RBI, and a .948 OPS, ranking in the top 20 in MLB in all categories. He has a chance to improve those numbers today with a great matchup.
Zack Littell's tenure as a National has gotten off to a dreadful start as he is 1-4 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. While he posted a 3.2 WAR season last year, he has never really been an analytics darling, so regression was expected. However, this season he has an 11.3% strikeout rate, a 47.1% hard-hit rate, and a 14% barrel rate.
Left-handed hitters are slashing .319/.380/.750 with a double and 10 home runs against him. That bodes well for Hicks, who is already 1-for-3 against Littell. Hicks is hitting .337 against right-handed pitchers with 11 of his 12 extra-base hits, including eight home runs. He is +610 on FanDuel for a home run today.
Despite playing in an unfavorable park for hitters, Hicks is hitting .352 at home. With the matchup against Littell today, he should get two total bases, which may come via his 10th homer.
Pick: Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Total Bases
Pirates vs Giants Player Props
Roupp is off to a strong start with a 3.18 ERA (2.64 xERA) through his first seven starts. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of them. Even as he been roughed up a bit in his last two starts, allowing seven runs, the strikeouts have not dipped. Roupp has recorded six strikeouts in six of his first seven starts, including each of his last four outings.
Tonight, his matchup is decent as the Pirates are 15th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Though the Pirates sit in the middle of the pack, seven of the last nine starting pitchers they have faced have gone over their strikeouts line. Six of them have reached six strikeouts, including Roupp's teammate Robby Ray last night, who fanned seven.
Roupp is not the traditional overpowering strikeout pitcher you might think, but he has predominantly relied on his sinker and curveball to put hitters away. He has recorded 30 of his 43 strikeouts with those two pitches. They have also helped him limit hard contact as he ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit percentage, as well as the 79th percentile in strikeout rate.
Roupp has completed five innings in five of his first seven starts and six innings in four of them. Seeing as he is averaging over a strikeout per inning this season, five to six innings should put him on pace for six strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Landen Roupp Over 5.5 Strikeouts
MLB Player Props for Saturday, May 9
- J.J. Bleday Over 1.5 Total Bases (+153, DraftKings)
- Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, BetMGM)
- Landen Roupp Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
