The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres on July 1, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Cubs are -122 on the moneyline. The Padres are +104 on the moneyline. The total is set at 11.5.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Cubs Prediction
- Padres vs Cubs Pick: Padres ML
My Padres vs Cubs best bet is on San Diego. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Cubs Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 11.5 -114o / -106u | +104 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 11.5 -114o / -106u | -122 |
- Padres vs Cubs moneyline: Padres +104, Cubs -122
- Padres vs Cubs over/under: 11.5 (-114 / -106)
- Padres vs Cubs spread: Padres +1.5 (-184), Cubs -1.5 (+152)
Padres vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Walker Buehler (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Colin Rea (RHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.81 / 4.30 | ERA / xERA | 4.80 / 5.33 |
| 3.42 / 3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.74 / 4.69 |
| 13.4% | K-BB% | 8.6% |
| 48.9% | GB% | 44.9% |
| .314 | BABIP | .293 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Padres vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The best starter in the Padres' rotation for the last month? Walker Buehler, who looked close to DFA territory earlier this year. He owns a 2.45 ERA in 36 2/3 innings over his past seven starts. He also features a 3.55 xERA and 3.07 FIP in that span. Buehler has neutralized teams hitting the long ball, boasting a 0.45 HR/9 in those seven outings.
The days of Buehler striking out hitters at a high rate are a thing of the past. But he boosted his K/9 to 8.08 this year, his best rate since 2021.
I still struggle to trust Buehler since we're looking at a four-year sample of disaster. However, he seems to know how to pitch better than to throw now, given his diminished velocity.
Offense is the real issue for San Diego.
It has the worst wRC+ in the league, but the Padres are up to 23rd in wRC+ in June. Fernando Tatis Jr. is finally hitting like himself, posting a 129 wRC+ with three homers in 26 games. Some of the other key cogs have failed to carry their weight. Four of the top six hitters in the order — Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill — each have a wRC+ below 105.
The key to the Padres winning is getting to the sixth inning with the lead. If Buehler gives the Padres a full five, the best bullpen in the league can shut the door.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
If the entire Cubs rotation were healthy, Colin Rea likely wouldn't be in the rotation. He enters this outing with a 4.80 ERA to go with an even worse 5.33 xERA and 4.74 FIP.
His batted-ball data is very troubling, ranking in the 11th percentile among qualified starters in barrel rate and 14th in expected batting average. Plus, he throws just 93-to-95 MPH on his fastball and strikes out just 6.72 hitters per nine.
In June, the Cubs rank seventh among MLB lineups with a 116 wRC+. They lead the league with an 11% walk rate in that span. Four of their starters have a walk rate better than 12%, led by Michael Busch's 16% and Alex Bregman's 15%.
The real key to the Cubs' offensive success is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's sure to notch June player of the month honors. He leads Chicago with a 231 wRC+ and 10 homers, and has accumulated 2.9 WAR in 26 games.
Beyond the Cubs' depleted pitching rotation, I have real concerns surrounding their bullpen.
Tell me if you've heard this before, but the Cubs pen is very injured. Closer Daniel Palencia is on the shelf, as is lefty specialist Hoby Milner and key righty Phil Maton.
Padres vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
When the game gets into the latter stages, the advantage lies with San Diego.
If this game ends up high-scoring, Chicago has the edge.
However, I value what Buehler has done across his past seven outings enough to think he can contain this hot Cubs offense.
That should give the Pads enough of a chance to take the final game of this series.
Pick: Padres ML
