MLB Playoff Betting Odds, Picks and Prediction: Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 3 (Oct. 8)

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Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado

Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3 Odds

Dodgers Odds -170 [Bet Now]
Padres Odds +145 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-120) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 9:08 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network

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The Padres rotation suffered some key losses towards the end of the season. Not having starters Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet has forced San Diego to shuffle their plans and they’ll have to use 21-year old left-hander, Adrian Morejon, as an opener in Game 3. The Dodgers will counter with a young pitcher of their own in 23-year old right-hander, Dustin May.

San Diego lost Game 2 but it had a much better performance at the plate and was one run away from tying the game in the ninth inning.

Without having two of their best pitchers available for the rest of the series, the Padres will likely need to rely on their bats to have any chance at getting back in the series.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Dustin May made 12 appearances including 10 starts this season. He finished with a 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His 4.62 FIP, which is higher than his ERA, makes him a candidate for regression. What’s surprising about May is that for someone who has a fastball that averages 99 mph, his 7.07 K/9 ratio is relatively low. May figures to be more of a ground-ball pitcher as he ended the regular season with a 2.1 GB/FB ratio. However, he can leave some pitches up at times as evidenced by his 1.45 HR/9 ratio.

Per Baseball Savant, May throws five pitches: A sinker (51.4%), a cutter (24.6%), a curveball (13.4%), a four-seamer (5.5%) and a changeup (5.1%). Fangraphs actually rates each one of his pitches as above average. His best pitch is probably his curveball which he’s used to generate a 38.8% whiff rate.

The Padres should like their chances as they’ve had success against the curveball this season, ranking ninth in all of baseball, five runs above average when facing the pitch.

San Diego Padres

Despite making only six starts, Adrian Morejon might be a bit of a good-luck charm for the Padres. San Diego is 4-2 in his starts and will hope Morejon can string together enough innings while the bats go to work against Dustin May.

Morejon hasn’t pitched more than three innings this year and he finished the regular season at 2-2 with a 466 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Like May, he’s also a candidate for regression given his 5.93 FIP. The Dodgers lineup has just 17 at-bats against Morejon but they have a .353 AVG / .353 OBP / .706 SLG slash line when facing the left-hander.

It also hasn’t mattered much for the Dodgers if the opposing pitcher is a southpaw or right-hander. They’ve hit pretty much everyone they’ve come up against this year and they’ve actually hit left-handers better this postseason when you consider their .304 AVG / .471 OBP / .478 SLG slash line.

Betting Analysis

Three innings of work would be a good performance for Morejon. San Diego would have to stitch the rest of the game together from there. The Padres lineup needs to give their pitchers some margin for error by putting up some crooked numbers up on the board. Perhaps yesterday’s performance is a sign that the bats are starting to heat up. We’ve already started to see some cracks in the Dodgers manager Dave Roberts going to Joe Kelly to get the final out in the game.

I mentioned that the Padres are 4-2 with Morejon as a starter, but they’ve also scored a minimum of four runs in all six of those games, with both teams combining for at least nine runs in four of those games. That supports my theory that this game needs to be a slugfest if the Padres are going to have any chance to avoid elimination.

DraftKings  is offering a Padres team total at 3.5 runs and that could be worth a look in this spot. Unfortunately, I’ve been caught in between on my analysis of this series so this will just be a lean for me as I’m likely to sit this one out and look to fight another day.

The PICK: Lean Padres Team Total Over 3.5 (-130)

[Bet the Padres now at PointsBet and win $125 if they get a hit tonight.]

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