MLB Playoff Odds, Picks Today 10/8/22 | Rays vs Guardians Game 2 Preview

Updated Rays vs. Guardians Game 2 Odds

The first day of the MLB postseason certainly didn't let us down as the Guardians won a 2-1 thriller over the Rays.

Day two will look to pick up right where day one left off and will do so with a matinee between Tampa Bay and Cleveland.

In Game 1 of this series, the Rays looked about as limp as an offense can, and Shane McClanahan left one changeup a touch too high against one of the best players in baseball. As a result, the Rays now need to win two straight in Cleveland to continue their season.

So, what's in store for Game 2? Let's take a look.

The Parlay (+419):

• No Run Second Inning (-215)
• Tyler Glasnow under 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
• Under 6 total runs (-118)

Same-Game Parlay – Rays vs. Guardians

No Run Second Inning

In recent years, NRFI, or No Run First Inning, has become a popular enough bet that entire articles are dedicated to tracking the best and worst on a daily basis.

Well, this is the NRFI's little brother: NRSI.

So, why target the second inning in Game 2?

For starters, as most baseball fans will realize, it is more likely to be a low-scoring inning due to the nature of the batting lineup. The first inning gets all the best bats. The second inning might draw the cleanup hitter to lead things off, but then it's off to the bottom half of the order.

Of course, the books aren't stupid and that is baked in. For example, in Game 2, NRFI is -188, while NRSI is -215. That's a decent amount of juice, so why am I willing to pay it?

The Rays lineup really only has two, maybe three, bats that are going to scare Triston McKenzie on Saturday. Against right-handed pitchers, and on the pitches in McKenzie's arsenal (fastball-slider-curveball), Wander Franco posted an elite .373 xwOBA; Yandy Diaz posted a strong .360 xwOBA; and then it's down to David Peralta at .333, but he didn't even start Game 1. The rest of the lineup is either barely at or well below league average in those parameters.

Diaz and Franco are the Rays 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup, and as such, I'd like to avoid the risk of them getting to McKenzie. I actually debated a SGP centered around a Wander hit and a Diaz run, but the edge just wasn't there (the juice on events to happen is always so rough in these SGP).

Glasnow under 5.5 strikeouts

This line has already moved a bit since I first began writing, moving from +126 to +116 then to +112. I don't think that's a mistake and I wouldn't be surprised if it continued to move in that direction. If you like this SGP, I would enter it sooner than later.

With the Rays' backs against the wall, it feels like it's going to be all hands on deck right from the very start. Of course, Glasnow can rack up strikeouts in a hurry and had seven in just 3 2/3 innings in his final start of the season. However, there's a reason he only went 3 2/3 innings in that start.

Glasnow made only two starts this season as he spent most of the year finishing his recovery from Tommy John. Given the potential for a piggyback with Jeffrey Springs and a mostly rested Rays' bullpen, it's likely Glasnow isn't in this game for long.

There's also the fact that the Guardians don't strike out a lot against right-handed pitchers (league-low 17.3% strikeout rate). This leg is my favorite part of the whole SGP as long as it stays at plus money.

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Under 6 total runs

I'll be honest, this is my least favorite leg of the SGP. It's not entirely that I hate the number (although paying juice to go under six is pretty wild), it's that it doesn't necessarily bring all that much extra payout because it overlaps so clearly with our first leg, Mr. NRSI.

When making SGP's I love to come up with game scripts that are indeed correlated, but maybe don't appear to be on the surface, so that the SGP algorithm has trouble dinging me for combining them. A quarterback going under on his passing yards in a blowout win, for example.

However, I just keep coming back to how low-scoring I think this game will be. The Rays, when they have their backs against the wall are downright impossible to solve. In this iteration of the franchise, they have allowed 23 runs in eight games in which they have faced playoff elimination since 2019 — an average of 2.88 runs/game.

On the flip side, McKenzie is on one hell of a heater. In his final 11 starts of the season, he posted a 2.27 ERA and a 2.73 FIP with a 77:12 K:BB ratio and a 15% swinging strike rate over 71 1/3 innings.

Make that just his final five starts and it's down to a 1.91 ERA, a 1.99 FIP, a 36:3 K:BB ratio and a 16% swinging strike rate. And again, this Rays lineup isn't inspiring much confidence these days.

The Guardians also have James Karinchak (2.08 ERA), Trevor Stephan (2.69), Sam Hentges (2.32) and basically every arm that contributed to the fourth-best bullpen in baseball this season — outside of Emmanuel Clase — ready to go.

Add it all together and runs will be at a premium.

One final note: I will say that I realize +419 isn't the biggest payout for a SGP. These are always going to be a struggle to be plus EV, so most folks like it as a fun lotto ticket. If you are that type of person, one route to take is to switch this final leg to "1st Half Winning Margin Exact: Tie (+320)."

Again, this follows the script of a very tightly-contested game between two great pitching staffs and it boosts the overall odds up to +1193.

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