MLB Playoff Player Props Picks Today October 16, Including Gerrit Cole, Cal Quantrill
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees.
The only remaining divisional series is between the New YorkYankees and the Cleveland Guardians. To the surprise of many, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination, but they'll turn to their ace as they look to extend their season. So let's dive in to see how I'm targeting both starters tonight.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
|Yankees vs. Guardians||Yankees -175|
|First Pitch||7:07 p.m. ET|
Cole came out and dominated this Guardians lineup in Game 1. He threw 6 1/3 innings, gave up one run, and struck out eight batters. Interestingly, his strikeout prop for that matchup was 6.5.
For tonight, it's dropped even lower. That is likely because the Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors, and they've already seen Cole, but the difference in the line gives us more of an edge.
The start in Game 1 was Cole's third against them this season, and it was also the third time that he's struck out at least six Guardians. So he is perfect to the over against them, but he is 79.4 to this over on the season. That gives us -385 implied odds that he will go over again tonight.
With the Yankees facing elimination, expect Cole to give his best effort.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 9
Cal Quantrill Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+130)
On the other side of this matchup, we have Cal Quantrill. The 27-year-old right-hander was solid in his first career postseason start, as he allowed three earned runs and struck out five over five innings of work. However, the damage the Yankees did against him in Game 1 was minimal, and they are in line to do much more tonight.
New York's bats finally showed signs of life as we saw homers from Aaron Judge, Oswaldo Cabrera and Harrison Bader. However, those homers were three of the Yankees' five hits, and they were out-hit 15 to five in the game. Although the Yankees are due for positive regression, look at their number against Quantrill.
They have complied 66 at-bats as a team and are hitting .303 with a .591 slugging percentage. However, they've Quantrill so well that their numbers are expected to go up. An average exit velocity of 94 mph has their xBA at .356 and their xSLG at .681. Not only are the Yankees due for success against Quantrill, but he is due to regress himself. His FIP is 4.12, and his xERA is 4.31.
Lastly, Quantrill is no stranger to going over this total, as he allowed at least three runs in 51.5 percent of his starts, which gives us implied odds of -106. So there is line value to back up the data.
Pick: Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Action Labs Grade: 8