MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ALDS Game 2 Mariners vs Astros
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: J.P. Crawford
Mariners vs. Astros Game 2 Odds
|Time||8:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Game 1 of the American League Division Series was stunning and hopefully a sign that we are in store for a thrilling series between these two teams. The Mariners acquired Luis Castillo at the trade deadline with hopes of watching him toe the rubber in October.
Castillo spun a gem in the Wild Card round and will look to do the same in Game 2 of the ALDS. Our analysts are backing the Mariners in this contest and have a pair of best bets for you to tail.
MLB Odds & Picks
Seattle Mariners First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5
DJ James: The Seattle Mariners faltered at the end of Game 1 and gave the Astros a 1-0 lead in the series. The Mariners now have the opportunity to rectify the situation against Framber Valdez.
Seattle has faced Valdez twice this season and Houston hasn’t yet Seattle’s starter, Luis Castillo. In those two starts, Valdez allowed three earned runs in each, even though he went at least six innings.
In addition to that, the Mariners come into this game with a 108 wRC+ off of southpaws from August 1 until the end of the regular season with a 10.5% walk rate. Valdez ranks around the middle of the pack in walk rate, but the factor that mainly plays into this is that Seattle has seven hitters on its ALDS roster with a xwOBA over .330 in that same timeframe.
Adding on, Valdez primarily keeps the ball on the ground (2022 66.5% groundball rate). The Mariners rank sixth in flyball rate against lefties since August 1.
This is a strong matchup in Game 2 and since Valdez will likely throw until the fifth inning, Seattle should get through the order at least twice and produce at least two runs.
Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline (+124)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Mike Ianniello: Seattle lost Game 1 in heart-breaking fashion after leading throughout. The Mariners help a 7-3 lead ithrough seven innings before giving up two in the eighth and three in the ninth via a Yordan Alvarez walk-off bomb.
Despite the brutal loss, the Mariners should still come into this game with a ton of confidence after tagging the likely AL Cy Young Award winner for six runs and 10 hits. In three postseason games, the Mariners’ bats have racked up 21 runs. All nine starters have scored a run this postseason, too.
Now, Seattle turns to its big trade deadline acquisition — Luis Castillo. He got the start in the opener of the Wild Card round and turned in a dominant performance. Against a lethal Blue Jays’ lineup, Castillo pitched into the eighth inning and didn’t surrender a run while striking out five.
We know the Astros lineup can mash the ball, but they are much better against lefties. Since the beginning of August, Houston ranks just 26th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
The Astros have yet to face Castillo this year and their entire roster has just a combined 11 plate appearances against him in his career. Seattle has gotten to see Valdez twice this year and was able to plate three runs against him in each matchup.
Given the dominance we saw from Castillo in his past outing, the familiarity they have with Valdez and the confidence these Mariners have at the plate right now, I’ll back Seattle to jump out to another early lead in Houston in Game 2.