The Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 12, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -251 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +203 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction
- Phillies vs Brewers Pick: Jacob Misiorowski Under 18.5 Outs (-328 or Better), Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBIs (+200 or Better)
My Phillies vs Brewers best bets are these Misiorowski and Harper props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 7.5 -119o / -102u | +203 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 7.5 -119o / -102u | -251 |
- Phillies vs Brewers moneyline: Phillies +203, Brewers -251
- Phillies vs Brewers over/under: 7.5 (-119o / -102u)
- Phillies vs Brewers spread: Phillies +1.5 (-104), Brewers -1.5 (-115)
Phillies vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Andrew Painter (RHP, PHI) | Stat | Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 6.21 / 4.82 | ERA / xERA | 1.50 / 2.24 |
| 5.08 / 4.68 | FIP / xFIP | 1.91 / 2.21 |
| 10.7 | K-BB% | 31.1 |
| 37.9 | GB% | 45.5 |
| .337 | BABIP | .242 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 125 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Phillies vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview, Picks
By Derek Carty
Milwaukee Brewers Prop: Jacob Misiorowski Under 18.5 Outs
I am fully fading Jacob Misiorowski today with several props, but the main one is Under 18.5 outs, currently at -173 at DraftKings. That feels like a lot to pay for it, but 18.5 means he has to pitch into the seventh inning for this to win.
Theoretically, I have this good down to -300 because it's just a crazy number. THE BAT X is projecting the Brewers' ace for under 16 outs here on average. So for him to go 19 or more would take a lot.
Obviously, he's done this several times this year, but as great as Misiorowski has been and as great as he actually is, he cannot possibly be this good. Nobody is 1.5 ERA good long-term; they can't be.
As great as Misiorowski is, as great as his stuff is, and his stuff does profile incredibly in THE BAT X, this is still a guy who historically has walked five guys per nine innings, and he's only walking like two this year. So those walks almost certainly are going to come up.
When the walks come up, he's going to waste more pitches, he's not going to be able to be as efficient, and he's not going to go as deep into games.
You also look at his underlying luck metrics. So he has a .242 BABIP, an 84% left-on-base percentage, and a 7% home run per fly ball rate. These numbers are not sustainable, no matter how good you are. They are going to regress to an extent.
Plus, he's facing an elite offense today in Philly. It's not like he's got a cake matchup here, it's a really tough team, and he can't pitch into the seventh inning for us to win this bet.
So it's scary, it's gross, and we have to pay for it, but I am definitely going with the under on Misiorowski's outs here today.
Philadelphia Phillies Prop: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBIs
I also like Bryce Harper to record an RBI, which is +250 at bet365. I have it good down to +200.
So basically, other ways to fade Misiorowski are betting on the Phillies' hitters. As mentioned, I'm fully in on fading Misiorowski today.
Picks: Jacob Misiorowski Under 18.5 Outs (-328 or Better), Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBIs (+200 or Better)
