Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, August 25.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Braves vs. Marlins, Rays vs. Guardians, Pirates vs. Cardinals, and Padres vs. Mariners. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, August 25
Braves vs. Marlins
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -118 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -102 |
Spencer Strider vs. Edward Cabrera
The Marlins have a strong case as an underdog tonight against the Braves, thanks to Edward Cabrera’s recent breakout and Atlanta’s pitching concerns. After a rough April while working back from a blister issue, Cabrera has settled in with a 2.82 ERA and 3.37 xFIP since May 18, supported by career-best command and a sharper pitch mix.
He has cut his walk rate nearly in half from his career norm, is attacking the zone more frequently, and is landing first-pitch strikes at a much higher rate. His Stuff+ has also improved as he’s shifted away from relying on a below-average fastball and leaned more on his sinker and slider, both of which have played up.
On the other side, Spencer Strider continues to show troubling signs, with declining velocity, Stuff, and command across the past few seasons, now sitting at a career-worst 4.76 botERA. His fastball velocity has dropped for a fourth straight year, his Stuff+ has dipped well below league average, and his command metrics have regressed.
To make matters worse, Atlanta’s bullpen has been one of the league’s worst over the last month, ranking 30th in xFIP and near the bottom in strikeout-to-walk differential.
With Cabrera’s ascension and the Braves’ pitching vulnerabilities, Miami holds betting value at projected -109, playable down to -102.
Pick: Marlins ML (+105 | Bet to -102)
Rays vs. Guardians
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Ian Seymour vs. Tanner Bibee
The Rays are worth a look against the Guardians tonight, with value on Ian Seymour making his first MLB start. The 2020 second-round pick has impressed in Triple-A with a 2.82 xFIP and a strong 23.6% K-BB%, while limiting hard contact both there and in his 23 big-league innings.
Although Stuff+ and botERA don’t love his profile, Seymour leans heavily on his changeup—a pitch type that often grades poorly in models but consistently generates outs. Projections see him as a mid-4s ERA arm the rest of the way, which is more than serviceable in this matchup.
As for the Guardians, Tanner Bibee has shown real home run issues, allowing 1.45 HR/9 compared to the 1.17 league average, while his strikeout rate has dipped to a career-low, and his chase rate sits in the bottom tier of the league. Tampa Bay also holds the edge in the bullpen, ranking first in both xFIP and K-BB% over the past 30 days, while Cleveland sits in the middle of the pack.
With an underrated debut arm in Seymour, a struggling Bibee, and the bullpen advantage, the Rays offer betting value at projected +113, playable to +122.
Pick: Rays ML (+135 | Bet to +122)
Pirates vs. Cardinals
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
Johan Oviedo vs. Michael McGreevy
The Cardinals look like the side to back against the Pirates tonight, with a favorable pitching matchup and a historically weak Pittsburgh offense. Michael McGreevy profiles as a modern Kyle Lohse type—excellent command, deep pitch mix, but limited raw stuff.
His Location+ of 112 and minuscule 2.8% walk rate highlight his ability to attack the zone and sequence seven different pitches effectively, even if none grade out above average. Models project him as a mid-3s ERA arm with rest-of-season FIPs between 3.91 and 4.05, suggesting steady innings and reliable run prevention.
Looking at the Pirates' pitching tonight, Johan Oviedo continues to carry red flags. While he struck out six with just one walk in his last outing against Toronto, his command metrics were poor, and his velocity has dipped a full tick from career levels. His botERA sits at 5.63 this year versus a 5.05 career baseline, with projections still putting him in the 4.01–4.48 range but trending higher than McGreevy’s outlook.
Offensively, Pittsburgh is in historically bad territory; per Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs, the Pirates could become the first AL or NL team in over a century without a single player finishing at league-average or better offensively.
With St. Louis holding the clear edge in both pitcher projection and lineup competency, they offer value at a projected -160 price, playable down to -147.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-130 | Bet to -147)
Padres vs. Mariners
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -115o / -105u | -130 |
JP Sears vs. Bryce Miller
The Mariners are in a good spot to back against the Padres tonight, with Bryce Miller looking sharp in his return from elbow inflammation. He showed his best velocity and stuff in months, averaging 95.9 mph on his fastball—the hardest he’s thrown since last August—while posting a 109 Stuff+ and a 2.74 botERA in that outing. Projections peg him in the mid-to-high 3s ERA range the rest of the season, and with his velocity trending back up, there’s reason to buy the optimistic end.
By contrast, JP Sears has remained steady but unimpressive since joining San Diego, carrying a career 4.49 ERA and 4.88 xFIP with rest-of-season projections north of 4.70. His strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.9% sits below league average and well behind Miller’s 16%.
Offensively, both lineups project as strong and evenly matched in this split (113 wRC+), which puts more weight on the pitching edge. With warm weather in Seattle boosting run-scoring conditions, the Mariners hold value at projected -140, playable to -130, while the over 8 runs is worth a look down to -110.
Pick: Mariners ML (-125 | Bet to -130) & Over 8 (-130 | Bet to -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 25
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- Red Sox ML (-115 | Play to -125)
- Marlins ML (+105 | Play to -102)
- Rays ML (+135 | Play to +122)
- Cardinals ML (-130 | Play to -147)
- Angels ML (+158 | Play to +150)
- Athletics ML (+195 | Play to +180)
- Mariners ML (-125 | Play to -130)
- Padres vs. Mariners Over 8 (-103 | Play to -110)
