Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, August 4.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Monday, I preview Astros vs. Marlins, Brewers vs. Braves, Yankees vs. Rangers and Padres vs. Diamondbacks. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, August 4
Astros vs. Marlins
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 8.5 -106o / -115u | -102 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8.5 -106o / -115u | -119 |
Jason Alexander vs. Sandy Alcantara
The Marlins ultimately held on to Sandy Alcantara at the trade deadline. He's under control through 2027, and Miami potentially has an elite future playoff rotation with him, Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer.
Miami has been red hot lately, moving to .500 for the first time since April. However, the most optimistic projection has the Marlins sitting at 2.5% to make the playoffs in 2025.
Back to Alcantara, he's made significant strides over the past two months. The stuff has been there all along post-Tommy John surgery, but his command has finally returned, too.
Through May, Alcantara had a 8.47 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 4.6% K-BB%, 108 Stuff+, 93 Location+, 101 Pitching+ and 4.10 botERA.
In June and July, he has a 4.50 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, 11.5% K-BB%, 108 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 111 Pitching+ and 3.47 botERA.
The Marlins' bullpen is underrated, as over the last 30 days, it's third in xFIP, sixth in K-BB%, sixth in Pitching+ and fifth in botERA.
Meanwhile, the Houston offense is struggling, and its added replacements are underwhelming.
Carlos Correa has a 96 wRC+ compared to a 125 wRC+ for his career. Jesus Sanchez has a 103 wRC+ compared to a 100 wRC+ for his career. Ramon Urias has a 90 wRC+ versus a 104 wRC+ for his career.
The Astros are in their lesser split, too, as they're 20th against right-handed pitchers and second vs. left-handed pitchers. Over the last 30 days, the Astros have a 90 wRC+ (28th in the MLB) against right-handers.
I'm projecting 7.6 runs for this game, so bet the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to -105)
Brewers vs. Braves
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8.5 -118o / -103u | -148 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8.5 -118o / -103u | +122 |
Quinn Priester vs. Erick Fedde
It'll be unusually chilly for August in Atlanta on Monday, as it'll be 70 degrees at first pitch with 9-10 mph winds blowing in from left field.
Per Action Labs, games in July and August since 2005 that have an average temperature of less than 70 hit the under 53.7% of the time. That bet has posted a 3.5% return on investment in that span.
Also, with wind blowing in from left or right field since 2005, the under has hit 54.7% with a +6.1% ROI.
Games fitting the above weather criteria at Truist Park are 28-16-1 (63.6%) to the under with a +21.5% ROI.
The trends aren't the only thing supporting this under, though.
Milwaukee's bullpen is elite, with it sitting fifth in xFIP, 15th in K-BB%, first in Stuff+, second in Pitching+ and eighth in botERA over the last 30 days.
Quinn Priester is in the midst of a breakout season (3.60 xERA, 3.66 xFIP). He exchanged a four-seamer for a cutter and additional sinkers, and it's worked out in his favor.
The Braves' lineup has been diminished without Ronald Acuna Jr. It had just a 99 wRC+ (14th in the MLB) before he returned.
These are also two strong defensive clubs, as Atlanta is third in Defensive Runs Saved and eighth in Outs Above Average while Milwaukee is 12th and third, respectively.
I'm projecting 8.02 runs compared to 8.62 runs on a weather-neutral day at Truist Park.
Pick: Under 8.5
Yankees vs. Rangers
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +109 | 8 -113o / -108u | -157 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -133 | 8 -113o / -108u | +129 |
Max Fried vs. Patrick Corbin
Max Fried continues to deal with a blister and a potential forearm injury. He had a 4.9% K-BB% and 104 Location+ through June and a 9.4% K-BB% and 98 Location+ in July.
He struggled with his walk rate in the second half of 2024 while nursing forearm neuritis.
His ERA continues to catch up to the underlying indicators (2.62 ERA, 3.38 xERA, 3.43 xFIP) as his BABIP (.261) moves towards his career average (.291).
The Yankees' offense is below average without Aaron Judge. With Judge, the Yanks have a 118 wRC+, which is first in the MLB. Without Judge, they have a 97 wRC+, which is 17th in the league.
The Rangers are better defensively (first in Defensive Runs Saved and fourth in Outs Above Average), as the Yankees are 11th in DRS and 21st in OAA.
The Yankees' lineup is the healthiest its been all season long, and that's shown with a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
I'm projecting the Rangers ML at +116, so I'd bet this to +126.
Pick: Rangers ML to +126
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 9.5 -101o / -121u | -144 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9.5 -101o / -121u | +118 |
JP Sears vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt has mostly put the early-season struggles behind him. Through June 5, he had a 4.29 xFIP, 11.9% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+ and 3.95 botERA. Since, he's had a 3.69 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+ and 3.50 botERA.
For his career, he has a 3.93 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+ and a 3.24 botERA.
His pitch mix has changed, and over that span, Pfaadt has reduced his four-seam usage by nearly 10% while starting to throw a cutter in its stead (10.9% usage). He began throwing more sinkers and sliders at the expense of his curveball and changeup.
All told, his 5.11 ERA and 6.29 xERA are misleading. His 4.03 xFIP, 3.76 botERA and average FIP projections of 4.04 are more indicative of his talent.
Meanwhile, the Padres acquired JP Sears (4.03 xERA, 14.4% K-BB%) in the Mason Miller/Leo De Vries trade. Sears' xFIP (4.70 in 2025, 4.84 for his career) and projections (range of 4.65-4.92) are far less optimistic compared to his talent.
I'm projecting the Diamondbacks as +101 on the moneyline, so bet them to +110.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML to +110
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 4
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rangers ML +136 (Play to +126)
- Cubs ML -135 (Play to -145)
- Rays ML +110 (Play to +105)
- Diamondbacks ML +125 (Play to +110)
- Astros-Marlins Under 8.5 (-114) to 8 (-105)
- Giants-Pirates Under 8.5 (-105 to -110)
- Guardians-Mets Under 8.5 (-111) to 8 (-108)
- Brewers-Braves Under 8.5 (+105 to -110)
