Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, June 23.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Monday, I preview Yankees vs. Reds, Pirates vs. Brewers, Diamondbacks vs. White Sox and Cubs vs. Cardinals. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, June 23
Yankees vs. Reds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 10 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 10 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Allan Winans vs. Nick Lodolo
Allen Winans is a 29-year-old with a career 7.20 ERA and 4.99 FIP in eight starts (40 IP). He had two starts for Atlanta last season (83 Stuff+, 78 Pitching+, 4.76 botERA), and had a 4.24 xERA in 2023 and 7.05 in 2024.
Winans is changeup reliant (31% career), but that pitch has graded out poorly for him (88 Stuff+) and it's gotten smashed (.299 xwOBA in 2023, .414 in 2024).
The Yankees' offense is No. 2 in barrel rate (11.1%) and they're headed to a park with the biggest home-run boost (+28%) on a hot day.
For the Reds, Nick Lodolo has a career 1.25 HR/9 and carries a career-high 39.4% fly-ball rate in 2025 (36.4% for his career).
A southpaw puts the Yankees in their better split (127 wRC+ vs. LHP, 120 vs. RHP).
Also, the Reds' bullpen has been shaky, ranking 24th in xFIP and K-BB% on the year. Over the last 30 days, they're 23rd and 25th in those respective categories.
It'll be 95 degrees in Cincinnati for this one (feels like 102), but that's not adjusted based on Park Factor. I project 10.4 runs, which is the same as I'd make it on a weather-neutral day. It's hot everywhere on Monday.
Pick: Over 9.5 to 10 (-108)
Pirates vs. Brewers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +170 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -210 |
Braxton Ashcraft vs. Chad Patrick
Chad Patrick (4.02 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 14.8% K-BB%) is solid, but he owns a high botERA (5.11) and is potentially slowing down in June (16 IP, 17 H, 10 R, 8 BB, 19 K).
The Brewers need length on Monday after using seven relief pitchers on Sunday in 9-8 win. Grant Anderson pitched on back-to-back days, while DL Hall and Nick Mears have each pitched twice in three days.
That's not all, as Jared Koenig threw nearly 30 pitches on Sunday and Trevor Megill recorded four outs for the first time all season.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have used Caleb Ferguson and Dennis Santana three times in four days.
They're 23rd in relief pitching xFIP and 21st in K-BB%. Over the last 30 days, they're 19th and 12th in those respective categories, but Ferguson (2.8 xERA) and Santana (3.42 xERA) are two of their better arms.
Also, Milwaukee's offense is surging, as it's second in wRC+ (146) over the last seven days.
The weather will be 93 degrees with 12-14 mph winds out to left field. However, the roof is likely to be closed in Milwaukee.
I'm projecting 9.07 runs in this one.
Pick: Over 8.5 to -115
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -105o / -115u | -135 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -105o / -115u | +115 |
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Shane Smith
In Chicago, the weather will be 93 degrees with a 13 mph crossbreeze from first base to third base.
That will help the offense, but the White Sox are also mashing left-handed pitching (116 wRC+ over the last 30 days, which ranks eighth in the MLB).
Miguel Vargas' breakout is in full force, as he has a 148 wRC+ in May after struggling in March and April (76 wRC+).
His strikeout percentage is down from 24% to 16% year-over-year and he has an above average chase rate, whiff rate and barrel rate, indicating a solid foundation, strong swing selection decisions and the ability to put the bat on the ball.
Arizona is similarly crushing right-handed pitching, with a 120 wRC+ (fourth in the MLB) over the last 30 days. It also has a 117 wRC+ for the season, which is fourth in the league.
The Diamondbacks are less effective against left-handed pitching (ninth in wRC+, both on the season and over the last 30 days).
Both of these teams also have shaky bullpens, as Arizona is 19th in xFIP and 15th in K-BB% while Chicago is 30th and 28th, respectively.
Over the last 30 days, Arizona is 20th and 21st, respectively, while Chicago is 30th and 28th.
These are also bad defensive units, with Arizona checking in at 24th in Defensive Runs Saved and 13th in Outs Above Average and Chicago being 22nd and 26th, respectively.
I'm projecting 9.44 runs in this one.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Play to 9.5)
Cubs vs. Cardinals
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -105o / -115u | -110 |
Ben Brown vs. Matthew Liberatore
It's another hot one in St. Louis, as the weather will be 96 degrees with seven mph winds out to left field.
The weather was similar this past weekend, and the games finished 6-1, 6-5 and 4-1 with four total home runs.
These are two of my top three defensive teams in my model. The Cubs are second in Defensive Runs Saved and ninth in Outs Above Average, while the Cardinals are 19th in DRS and first in OAA.
I trust St. Louis' bullpen (17th in xFIP, 23rd in K-BB%) more than Chicago's (22nd in both metrics), but both are well-rested for Monday's affair. Both used their two worst projected relief pitchers (via my model) in mop-up duty on Sunday.
The Cubs used Chris Flexen and Nate Pearson, while the Cardinals used Kyle Leahy and Gordon Graceffo.
This play is also triggered by the Action Labs system for “Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams."
I'm projecting 8.22 runs in this one, so give me the under.
Pick: Under 9 to -120
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 23
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Yankees-Reds Over 9.5 (-120) to 10 (-108)
- Pirates-Brewers Over 8.5 (-110) to -115
- Diamondbacks-White Sox Over 8.5 (-120) to 9 (-108)
- Cubs-Cardinals Under 9 (-112) to -120
