Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, June 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Cubs vs. Phillies, Rays vs. Red Sox, Braves vs. Brewers, and Mariners vs. Diamondbacks. I also have additional picks in my betting card, which will be listed at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, June 9
Cubs vs. Phillies
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +120 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -145 |
LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI)
The Phillies boast a below-average offense with Bryce Harper on the IL (wrist inflammation). The current lineup is projected to have a 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a 103 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Meanwhile, the Cubs rank fourth among MLB lineups in wRC+ against righties (122) and sixth against lefties (117).
The Phillies’ bullpen has also been below-average since Jose Alvarado’s suspension, ranking 24th among MLB relief units in xFIP (4.43) and 23rd in strikeout minus walk rate (9.7%) since losing the star.
The Cubs also have a significant defensive edge, ranking in the top 10 in OAA and DRS, while the Phillies rank in the bottom 10 in both metrics.
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is always elite (2.29 xERA, 25.9% K-BB, 118 Pitching+, 2.66 botERA), but Cubs starter Matthew Boyd is very underrated (3.30 xERA, 19.1% K-BB, 96 Pitching+, 3.85 botERA).
I project the Cubs ML at +109.
Pick: Cubs ML (+135 | Play to +118)
Rays vs. Red Sox
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -105o / -115u | -115 |
RHP Shane Baz (TBR) vs. RHP Brayan Bello (BOS)
We should see pitcher-friendly weather in Boston on Monday, with 60-degree temps and near-double-digit breezes blowing in from right field. I lowered my projected total to 8.33, compared to 9.99 on a weather-neutral day at Fenway.
The Red Sox played on Sunday Night Baseball in the Bronx, so they’ll enter this game with the classic SNB Hangover — teams that have had to play in a new city the day after Sunday Night Baseball have lost 0.42 runs per game compared to the league average.
The Red Sox also aren’t seeing the ball very well, ranking 15th among MLB lineups in wRC+ (93) since losing Alex Bregman to injury.
Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello has been fortunate (3.91 ERA, 5.72 xERA, 4.3% K-BB, 451 botERA) and remains a candidate for implosion in any start. That said, he forces a ton of ground balls (53.1%), which helps him generate plenty of bailout double plays.
Contributing to this Under is a Rays team with a top-10 bullpen and defense.
Pick: Under 9 (-106 | Play to -115)
Braves vs. Brewers
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
LHP Chris Sale (ATL) vs. RHP Aaron Civale (MIL)
The Braves have dropped seven straight, including four consecutive demoralizing losses. The worst came on Thursday, when Atlanta led Arizona by six entering the ninth inning (with a 99.9% win probability) but blew it. The Braves led in three of those losses and lost another in extra innings.
Can the Brewers overcome Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale (3.16 xERA, 23.5% K-BB, 3.59 botERA) behind starter Aaron Civale (4.10 xERA, 12.3% K-BB, 5.02 botERA)?
Well, Milwaukee’s lineup is in its better split against a southpaw, and the bullpen has been far more effective lately, with Atlanta’s bullpen ranking as a bottom-10 unit in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate over the past month.
I project the Brewers ML at +133, even as I project the Braves F5 ML at -180.
Pick: Brewers ML (+160 | Play to +145)
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | +140 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | -170 |
RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI)
I prefer Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (4.06 xERA, 17.5% K-BB, 4.28 botERA) to Mariners starter Emerson Hancock (5.19 xERA, 9.7% K-BB, 4.51 botERA).
That said, Seattle has a slightly better and more well-rested bullpen entering Monday.
Both offenses are potent against right-handed pitching, and these defenses grade out similarly (DRS prefers Seattle, but OAA prefers Arizona).
Ultimately, I project the Mariners ML at +129.
Pick: Mariners ML (+145 | Play to +140)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 9
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- Cubs ML (+135 | Play to +118)
- Brewers ML (+160 | Play to +145)
- Mariners ML (+145 | Play to +140)
- Rays vs. Red Sox Under 9 (-106 | Play to -115)
