Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, May 20.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Reds vs Pirates, Rangers vs Yankees, and Diamondbacks vs Dodgers.
I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, May 20
Reds vs Pirates
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Nick Martinez (CIN) vs Bailey Falter (PIT)
The weather is projected to be pitcher-friendly in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, with temperatures in the mid-60s and a slight breeze coming toward home plate from left-center field.
Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez is in a groove, with four consecutive quality starts.
I wonder if he’s been MLB’s most underrated pitcher since the beginning of last season. Since joining the Reds rotation on August 5th last year, Martinez has started 20 games with a 2.97 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, and 16.3% strikeout minus walk rate. He’s an elite command-and-control pitcher who flashes a plus changeup (113 Stuff+ mark, 21% usage).
Conversely, Pirates can’t hit righties (74 wRC+, 29th among MLB lineups) or lefties (68 wRC+, 26th). Even worse, Oneil Cruz is dealing with a back issue and will likely be less than 100% (if he plays at all, which he’s expected to).
Meanwhile, the Reds are in their lesser split against Pittsburgh’s left-handed starter, Bailey Falter — the lineup has posted a 99 wRC+ against righties but 79 against southpaws.
Despite no improvements in his underlying indicators, Falter’s pace is on for a career-best 3.71 xERA. Cincinnati’s defense still grades below average, but it looks much improved from the past few seasons.
Similarly, the Pirates have improved immensely on the defensive side of the ball, ranking as a borderline-top 10 fielding club by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
I project 7.62 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 | Play to 8 -108)
Rangers vs Yankees
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9 -115o / -105u | +155 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -115o / -105u | -190 |
Patrick Corbin (TEX) vs Will Warren (NYY)
These are two strong defensive clubs.
The Rangers lead MLB in DRS (+39) while ranking fourth in OAA (+14). The Yankees rank ninth in DRS (+15) and 20th in OAA (-5) — the discrepancies come at catcher (+4 DRS) and pitcher (+7 DRS), which OAA doesn’t capture as well.
The Rangers are struggling in the batter’s box, ranking 25th among MLB lineups in wRC+ against righties (89). Corey Seager is on the IL (hamstring), which doesn’t help.
Conversely, the Yankees are a top-two lineup by almost every metric, regardless of handedness or rolling split.
New York starter Will Warren is talented. His 4.25 xERA doesn’t pop off the page, but his 3.47 botERA and 3.17 xFIP paint a prettier picture behind his career-best 18% strikeout minus walk rate. He’s also got three plus pitches (108 Stuff+ seeper, 109 Stuff+ sinker, 106 Stuff+ curveball) and forces a 45% ground-ball rate.
Texas starter Patrick Corbin’s cutter makes him a functional pitcher (4.22 xERA, 3.96 botERA, 102 Pitching+). Since August last year, he’s started 15 games with a 3.98 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 3.94 xfIP and 13.7% strikeout minus walk rate.
The weather in the Bronx is projected to be pitcher-friendly, with temps in the low-60s and breezes coming toward home plate from left field. On a neutral-weather day, I’d project this game for 8.82 runs, but factoring in Tuesday’s report, my projection falls to 8.37.
Pick: Under 9 (-104 | Play to -115)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 9 -115o / -105u | -220 |
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
Is Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto wearing down?
He still holds a 2.80 xERA, but he’s allowed eight earned runs across his past two outings behind lower velocity, lower Pitching+ marks (105 to 101), and an increased botERA (3.74 to 4.35).
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson is effective (3.92 xERA, 16.1% strikeout minus walk rate, 3.34 botERA, 111 Stuff+), but he still isn’t quite stretched out. He has yet to throw over 70 pitches in a start, including just 56 in his last outing — I wouldn’t expect him to see the order a third time.
Arizona’s bullpen is missing its two best arms (AJ Puk and Justin Martinez). The Snakes rank as a borderline-top 15 relief unit by xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate, but they struggle against left-handed hitters (4.49 xFIP, 11.5% strikeout minus walk rate). Jalen Beeks is their only left-handed reliever, which could be a problem against the Dodgers’ lefties (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Michael Conforto).
We should see hitter-neutral weather in Chavez Ravine, with mid-70s temperatures and a slight breeze out toward right-center field.
But we also get a hitter-friendly umpire. Games reffed by Edwin Moscoso are 80-47-7 to the over (62.9%, 21% ROI), and he increases my total projection by about 2%.
As a result, I project 9.74 runs for this NL West matchup.
Pick: Over 9 (-115 | Play to -120)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, May 20
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- Blue Jays +110 | Play to +100
- Reds vs Pirates Under 8.5 (-120 | Play to 8 -108)
- Rangers vs Yankees Under 9 (-104 | Play to -115)
- Angels vs Athletics Over 10 (-105 | Play to -115)
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Over 9 (-115 | Play to -120)
- Phillies vs. Rockies Over 10.5 (-115 | Play to 11 -103)
