Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, July 23.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Tigers vs. Pirates, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, and White Sox vs. Rays. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, July 23
Tigers vs. Pirates
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8.5 -121o / -101u | -149 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8.5 -121o / -101u | +123 |
RHP Troy Melton (DET) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (PIT)
Surely the lowly Pirates can’t sweep the mighty Tigers.
Right?
It’s Troy Melton’s MLB debut on Wednesday — the fourth pick in the 2022 draft and the No. 10 prospect in Detroit’s strong system. He’s got a big fastball that can touch triple-digits with a cutter, changeup, slider and curveball behind it. He posted a 2.65 xFIP behind a 26% strikeout minus walk rate between Double-A and Triple-A, but his projected FIP range still sits between 3.78 and 4.36.
Even using the most optimistic projection for Melton, I still show value on the Pirates.
The Tiger bats are struggling since Kerry Carpenter went down, posting a 90 wRC+ overall and a 65 wRC+ against southpaws, which doesn’t bode well against Bailey Falter in this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Pirates' bullpen has looked much better lately.
I project the Pirates ML at +114. I also project 9.1 total runs for the game, although lineups are subject to change, which could change my projection.
Pick: Pirates ML (+130 | Play to +123) & Over 8.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8.5 -104o / -117u | -137 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -139 | 8.5 -104o / -117u | +113 |
LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR)
Max Fried’s luck and workload are catching up to him, as his earned run indicators have jumped significantly in July (14 IP, 11 ER, 6.43 ERA, 5.33 xFIP). His .261 BABIP was never sustainable, but he’s also likely wearing down, as shown by his command (95 Location+ in July, walked three in his last outing).
Toronto’s lineup is in its better split against a left-handed starting pitcher, while New York’s is in its worse split against a righty.
I strongly prefer the Jays defensively, as they rank as MLB’s second-best defensive team in my model, while the Yankees rank 25th.
I’ve been on the right side in every head-to-head meeting this season, and I project Toronto ML at +104 for Wednesday’s matchup.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+120 | Play to +113)
White Sox vs. Rays
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -116 | 9 -107o / -114u | +176 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9 -107o / -114u | -217 |
RHP Jonathan Cannon (CWS) vs. RHP Taj Bradley (TBR)
Taj Bradley has been lucky with homer avoidance this season (0.98 HR/9, 10.7% HR/FB), which is surprising given that his typical home-run issues should be exacerbated outdoors in Tampa rather than in the Trop.
Jonathan Cannon has had his moments (7 IP, 1 ER in his most recent start). However, we have a full season of data on him (39 games, 35 starts, 208 ⅓ IP), and he has slowly declined as the league has become more familiar with him (4.90 xERA, 4.77 xFIP, 9.2% K-BB).
Cannon has a big fastball (109 Stuff+) and slider (117 Stuff+), but he only uses the two pitches around a third of the time combined. He could be a solid reliever with a consolidated arsenal, but his FIP projections sit in the 4.67-to-5.09 range.
These are two below-average defensive teams, and the weather is expected to be relatively hitter-friendly (82 degrees, with a feel of 90 degrees, and high humidity).
I project 9.8 runs for the game.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 | Play to -120)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 23
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Nationals ML (+120 | Play to +114)
- Pirates ML (+130 | Play to +123)
- Cubs ML (-142 | Play to -150)
- Blue Jays ML (+120 | Play to +113)
- Athletics ML (+125 | Play to +120)
- Padres vs. Marlins Under 8.5 (-118 | Play to 8 -105)
- Giants vs. Braves Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
- Tigers vs. Pirates Over 8.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
- Royals vs. Cubs Under 10.5 (-102 | Play to 8 -105)
- Red Sox vs. Phillies Over 8.5 (-115 | Play to 9 -105)
- White Sox vs. Rays Over 9 (-105 | Play to -120)
