Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, September 24.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Nationals vs. Braves, Brewers vs. Padres, Tigers vs. Guardians, and Twins vs. Rangers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, September 24
Nationals vs. Braves
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -115o / -105u | -185 |
LHP Andrew Alvarez (WSN) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (ATL)
Braves starter Bryce Elder has settled in as a league-average pitcher (4.06 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 13.8% K-BB, 102 Pitching+, 4.58 botERA since August 1).
Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez is an effective back-end pitcher (projected FIP range of 4.59 to 4.79). He has a plus curveball, but he may not have the weapons to neutralize right-handed hitting.
Wednesday, pre-1 p.m. first pitch starts are rare spots (15 total in 2024, 22 each in 2025, 2023 and 2022). It’s a gateway day that is more comparable to Sunday, with more surprise lineup substitutions than early starts on a Friday or Saturday.
Since 2005, these games have gone 185-159-24 to the Under (53.9% win rate, +4.4% ROI).
I project this total at 8.4.
Pick: Under 9 (+100 | Play to -115)
Brewers vs. Padres
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -105o / -115u | -120 |
RHP Chad Patrick (MIL) vs. RHP Dylan Cease (SDP)
The Brewers have won 19 consecutive games that Quinn Priester has started.
He has comparable metrics (3.64 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 12.5% K-BB) to Padres starter Dlan Cease (3.48 xERA, 3.65 xFIP), but worse stuff (98 Stuff+ to 108).
The AL West is still within reach for San Diego (1.5 games back), while Milwaukee is holding off Philadelphia for the top overall seed (2.5 game lead). Both teams are continuing to play their top lineups.
While I project William Contreras to miss this game (the team typically sits one of Contreras or Christian Yelich the day after a night game), I still project Brewers ML at -104.
The Brewers have significant advantages defensively and on the basepaths.
Pick: Brewers ML (+110 | Play to +102)
Tigers vs. Guardians
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE)
The weather report is calling for rain and high humidity on Wednesday, which should significantly increase the scoring, boosting my projected score by over a half-run.
Tigers starter Jack Flaherty is struggling lately, still dealing with injury issues that are catching up to him late in the season (5.04 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 10.4% K-BB over the past five starts).
The Detroit bullpen is also shaky, ranking last in strikeout minus walk rate over the past month (8.4%).
Pick: Over 7.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
Twins vs. Rangers
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +165 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -200 |
RHP Taj Bradley (MIN) vs. RHP Jacob deGrom (TEX)
This will be the final regular-season start for Jacob deGrom (3.32 xERA, 3.41 xFIP, 120 Pitching+, 2.87 botERA). This will be his 30th start this season, and he’ll likely pass 170 innings for the first time in five years.
The Rangers are eliminated from postseason contention, so I imagine they won’t push deGrom and likely head to the bullpen after five innings.
This is the sixth start for Taj Bradley in Minnesota (acquired for Griffin Jax at the deadline). He’s been unlucky so far (5.20 ERA, 4.14 xERA) due to an extremely low strand rate (61.8%). His ERA indicators are in line with his FIP projections (around 4.30).
The Rangers are banged up (no Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, or Evan Carter), ranking 18th among MLB lineups in wRC+ over the past two weeks (87).
I project the Twins ML at +143.
Pick: Twins ML (+168 | Play to +155)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 24
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- Brewers ML (+110 | Play to +102)
- Twins ML (+168 | Play to +155)
- Royals ML (+110 | Play to -102)
- Athletics ML (+125 | Play to +115)
- Nationals vs. Braves Under 9 (+100 | Play to -115)
- Brewers vs. Padres Under 8 (-114 | Play to 7.5 -102)
- Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Under 7.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
- Tigers vs. Guardians Over 7.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
