MLB PrizePicks Player Props: Play Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Freddie Freeman Saturday (May 21)
Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Semien
Saturday’s MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, May 21
Jon Gray Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Right-hander Jon Gray is slated to take the mound for the Rangers and should be a good fade candidate in this contest against the division rival Astros.
This line is an overreaction to his eight strikeout performance in his last outing against the Angels, who rank 26th in the league this season in K% against right-handed pitchers. Prior to that game, Gray has failed to go over this total in each of his four other starts.
Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Astros rank 13th in the league in K%. Across 58 career plate appearances against Gray, this current Astros roster possesses a K% of just 20.7%.
Marcus Semien Hitter Fantasy Score Under 4
I will also be fading a few hitters from the Rangers in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Justin Verlander. Verlander has been incredible this year as he is 5-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.68 WHIP through seven starts.
In his one start against Texas this season, Verlander allowed just one run on four hits with eight strikeouts and zero walks through seven innings. In that game, Semien went 0-for-4 with a strikeout.
Semien has been horrible this season as he possesses a mere .241 xwOBA, .184 xBA and .288 xSLG. Over his last 12 games, Semien has gone under this total eight times.
Mitch Garver Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other Texas hitter I am fading in this game is catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver. This season, Garver possesses a mere .307 xwOBA, .216 xBA, and .381 xSLG.
Over his six career plate appearances against Verlander, Garver is just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts. Garver’s numbers take a big dip when facing right-handed pitchers this season as he possesses a .173 BA, .254 OBP, .269 SLG, and .523 OPS.
Justin Turner Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
I will be fading a few hitters from the Dodgers in this contest against the Phillies as they are slated to go against right-hander Aaron Nola.
This season, Nola boasts a 3.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Nola’s metrics are even better as he possesses a .279 xwOBA, .211 xBA and .380 xSLG.
In his one start against the Dodgers this season, Nola allowed just two runs on four hits through seven innings. Turner went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in that game.
Freddie Freeman Hitter Fantasy Score Under 7.5
The other Dodgers hitter I am fading in this contest is Freddie Freeman. When the Dodgers last faced Nola, Freeman went 0-for-3 with a walk.
Over 71 career plate appearances against Nola, Freeman possesses a mere .238 BA, .381 SLG and .310 wOBA. Freeman has now gone under this fantasy score total in seven of his last 12 games.
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