MLB Props Friday | Expert Picks for Cristopher Sanchez, Tanner Houck, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (April 12)
Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner Houck, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cristopher Sanchez
- There are plenty of MLB player props to choose from tonight.
- Doug Ziefel, a MLB player prop betting expert, has looked over tonight's MLB odds and shares his best MLB player prop picks below.
It's finally Friday, and with the weekend fast approaching, many new series' are beginning tonight.
With the whole league in action, we have a bevy of arms to sort through, but I've done the heavy lifting for you as there are three guys to hone in on.
Let's meet them as we dive into our top MLB player props for Friday, April 12.
MLB Player Props For Friday, April 12th
Taking the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight will be lefty Christopher Sanchez. Sanchez has been tremendous since joining the rotation last season, as his command and ability to generate easy outs have given the team's rotation a boost behind their two aces.
However, working deep into games is something that the Phils have not allowed Sanchez to do, which has limited his strikeout upside. Sanchez has only worked into the sixth inning in eight of his 20 starts since last season, and with him averaging less than a strikeout per inning, that makes getting over this total difficult.
Overall, he has gone under this number in 13 of his last 20 starts. That 65 percent hit rate gives us implied odds of -186 that he will go under this total again tonight.
Our Action Labs projections also highlight this as a top play with a significant edge of just 4.7 strikeouts expected.
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
I faded Tanner Houck in his last outing. That did not work out, as he shut down the Los Angeles Angels by throwing six shutout innings and striking out seven batters in the process.
Tonight, he'll face the same Angels lineup that gets another look at him for the second consecutive outing. In addition to the Angels being familiar with Houck, the data still suggests that this total is too high, and Houck's hot start is not to be trusted.
Houck went under this total in 86 percent of his starts last season. That equates to implied odds of -614.
I know he's looked great to start the season, but regression is coming, and it should start tonight against an Angels lineup that is much better than their rank of ninth in team strikeout rate tells you.
Lastly, this is also one of our top plays, according to our Action Labs projections. Houck is projected to have just five strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Tanner Houck Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135 at bet365)
Check out the latest bet365 bonus code offer before placing your bets on Tanner Houck and Angels-Red Sox.
In his last two outings, it appears we've begun to see why Yoshinobu Yamamoto was so highly sought after this offseason. He has allowed no runs on five hits and struck out 13 in his last 10 innings.
He carries that momentum into an outing against the San Diego Padres, who are the team that rocked him in his first career start. Yamamoto appears primed to even the score tonight.
His strikeout rate of 31.9 percent ranks in the 86th percentile and should be enough to counteract a Padres lineup that has struck out just 19.7 percent of the time so far this season.
I bring up the elite strikeout rate because it shows that his total is nowhere near Yamamoto's strikeout upside. We've seen him bounce back lately, and if he sails over this total tonight, it will be the last time we see it this low.
Take the value while you can.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
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