MLB Props Odds, Picks, Predictions: 5 Best Bets For Dinger Tuesday, Including Royals Rookie Vinnie Pasquantino (July 5)
Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Vinnie Pasquantino
Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop. Even though home runs have been down in the 2022 season thus far, the promotion remains +EV, and there are signs that homers are trending up in the warmer months again.
If you want to learn more on how Dinger Tuesday works, here’s an explainer.
Here are my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Mets vs. Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Joey Votto +340
Even though Max Scherzer is pitching, you have to play any game played at the Great American Ball Park on Dinger Tuesday. Despite his dominance, Scherzer is coming off a long-term injury and might not have his best stuff back immediately. Votto has the second highest barrel rate on the Reds behind teammate Brandon Drury, but also gets the benefit of a handedness split as a lefty hitter against the right-handed Scherzer.
Votto is a frequent dinger pick for me because the market has undervalued his changed and improved approach since about mid-May. He's been barreling the ball a lot more since he switched to a knob-less bat and is my favorite pick in this game. If Votto isn't in the lineup, I'd look to Drury or Eduardo Escobar against the lefty Nick Lodolo.
Nationals at Phillies, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Matt Vierling +560
Citizens Bank Park is statistically the second-most wind dependent ballpark in MLB, behind Wrigley Field. And on Tuesday night, there's a 12 mph wind straight out to right-center field. That should juice the run-scoring environment and home run hitting ability considerably, as should the mediocre starting pitchers.
Matt Vierling is in the lineup tonight and while all of the usual sluggers have very low odds — Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell, Darick Hall and Juan Soto — Vierling actually has an above average barrel and hard-hit rate. The Phillies second baseman hits a lot of balls in the air — 41.3% fly ball rate — and it wouldn't take much for one of them to get caught up in the wind and fly out. In extreme wind conditions, I like to take a longer shot and Vierling is that here.
Rays at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Trevor Story +340
DraftKings has this number all the way down at +270 and the Red Sox righty has traditionally killed left-handed pitching. As impressive as Jeffrey Springs has been for Tampa Bay this season, he's also overperforming his expected ERA by about a run. Story has a career .613 SLG and .990 OPS against a left-handed pitching and even if that hasn't quite fully translated to 2022, I still trust his career sample.
Story actually has the highest barrel rate on the Red Sox at 12.5%, even higher than teammate Rafael Devers. Fenway is a very friendly park for home runs and given that both starters have a tendency to give up dingers, this game is a must-play on your Dinger Tuesday card.
Royals at Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino +500
Pasquantino hit his first career big league homer last week and I'm expecting him to hit plenty more in the coming months for Kansas City. Pasquantino had a .948 OPS in Triple-A Omaha this season with 18 homers in 69 games. Now he gets to hit in a big time hitters park in Houston. He's already barreled two balls in 15 batted balls in the big leagues and his displayed elite plate discipline in his first 24 plate appearances.
Pasquantino will be a common Dinger Tuesday play until the market adjusts downward to his power ability. With an MLB max exit velocity of 112.7 mph already, the raw power projects really well long term. Luis Garcia has pitched really well for Houston this season, but he has allowed 1.5 HR/9.
Twins at White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Luis Arraez +700
The wind is blowing out to right-center at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday and that should help two potent offenses. The pitching matchup is also favorable for home run conditions, with Twins rookie Josh Winder and extreme fly ball pitcher Michael Kopech on the mound for the White Sox. Kopech has a very unsustainable 5.4% HR/FB rate and the home runs are going to come against him in bunches in the coming weeks.
Most of the Twins sluggers with barrel rates over 10% have seen their odds drop considerably throughout the day. I missed the good Carlos Correa number as he was over +400 but there's no value left for him at +350. I'm instead targeting yet another long shot here with Luis Arraez.
Arraez puts a ton of balls in play and has an elite plate approach. That hasn't necessarily translated to power, but he does elevate the ball a decent amount and has a HR/FB rate that suggests some home runs are coming. Throw in Kopech's regression in the other direction and I'm going to take a long shot here.
Additional picks: Christian Walker +440, Nolan Arenado +360, Matt Chapman +440, Rougned Odor +460
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