MLB Prop Bets & PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Featuring Aaron Judge & Luis Robert (Tuesday, July 5)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.
- Tuesday's MLB slate features 15 games, which means there are plenty of player props available.
- Tony Sartori has his eyes set on Aaron Judge, Luis Robert and more for his PrizePicks parlay on Tuesday.
- Check out all five of Sartori's top picks for Tuesday below.
Tuesday's MLB slate features 15 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, July 5
Jameson Taillon Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 34.5
We have the first matchup of this two-game interleague series as the NL Central's Pittsburgh Pirates host the AL East's New York Yankees.
Right-hander Jameson Taillon is slated to take the mound for New York and could be a solid player to back in this contest.
Through 15 starts this season, Taillon is 9-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. This matchup is a particularly good opportunity for Taillon to keep his strong season going, as the Pirates have struggled when facing right-handers.
Since June 1, the Pirates rank just 27th in the league in batting average, 18th in OPS and 20th in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers.
Aaron Judge Hitter Fantasy Score Over 8.5
I'm also backing a few Yankees hitters in this contest, as they're slated to go against left-hander Jose Quintana. Quintana has gone 1-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 15 starts this season.
While those are solid numbers, Quintana's metrics suggest that regression is looming. This season, Quintana possesses a .342 xwOBA, .278 xBA and .462 xSLG.
If we're fading Quintana, there's no better candidate to back than Aaron Judge. Judge boasts a .282 BA, .619 SLG and .981 OPS through 78 games in 2022.
Judge's metrics are even stronger and suggest that positive regression is coming for the Yankees outfielder. He possesses a .452 xwOBA, .312 xBA and .732 xSLG.
Across four career plate appearances against Quintana, Judge is 1-for-3 with a double and a walk.
Giancarlo Stanton Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
The other Yankees batter I'm backing in this game is Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has been on a tear recently, homering in six of his last 10 games.
Like Judge, Stanton's metrics suggest that his numbers should keep rising. This season, Stanton boasts a .426 xwOBA, .296 xBA and .629 xSLG.
Going against a left-hander in Quintana, I expect this strong stretch to continue for the Yankees slugger.
Luis Robert Hitter Fantasy Score Under 8.5
We have the second matchup of this three-game AL Central divisional series as the Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins.
I'm fading a few White Sox hitters in this game as they take on right-hander Chris Archer.
Through 15 starts this season, Archer is 2-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Not only has Archer had a strong season, but he has been especially dominant of late, allowing one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts.
The first batter we're fading in this game is Luis Robert, who has struck out in his lone career plate appearance against Archer. Robert's numbers take about a 20% dip when facing right-handers as he owns a .271 BA, .294 OBP, .397 SLG and .691 OPS.
Over his last 11 games, Robert has gone under this total nine times (82%).
Jose Abreu Hitter Fantasy Score Under 7
The other White Sox hitter we're fading in this contest is Jose Abreu. Through 24 career plate appearances against Archer, Abreu possesses a mere .157 xBA, .274 xSLG and .297 xwOBA.
Like Robert, Abreu's numbers take a slight dip against right-handers, as he boasts a .290 BA, .380 OBP, .450 SLG, and .829 OPS.
Additionally, Abreu is much worse at home this season. His stat line features a mere .224 BA, .323 OBP, .329 SLG and .652 OPS when playing at Guaranteed Rate Field.
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