MLB Props Today | Odds, Prop Picks for Brandon Bielak, Justin Verlander (Wednesday, July 19)
Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Verlander of the New York Mets.
Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, July 19, including picks for Brandon Bielak and Justin Verlander.
MLB Player Props For Date, Day
Brandon Bielak Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+106)
| Astros @ Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Astros have dug into plenty of their Triple-A pitching depth this season, trotting out rookies Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Brandon Bielak for a combined 40 starts this year.
Houston pitchers are all the same, working the top of the zone with their fastballs and the bottom with their breakers. Bielak has four offerings in that mold.
He's been OK, cashing over 3.5 strikeouts in seven of his 11 starts while pitching to a 3.79 ERA. His changeup works glove side and has forced a 20% swinging strike rate.
It's never fun pitching at Coors, but I'm still fine backing Bielak in this market. The Rockies have struck out at the second-highest rate against right-handed pitching over the past month — a whopping 27.2% of the time. The Rox have a 12% swinging strike rate and a 32.4% chase rate over the past two weeks, two below-average plate discipline marks.
Predictably, the Rockies have allowed six of the last eight opposing pitchers to cash their strikeout totals. That includes Bielak, who struck out four Rockies across 96 pitches and seven scoreless innings on July 4. He picked up 11 total whiffs and posted a 37.5% CSW rate on his changeup.
Most projection systems have Bielak closer to four strikeouts, but our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for 4.7, making this one of the biggest edges on the board.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Pick: Bielak Over 3.5 Ks (+106) |
Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
| Mets vs. White Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Stuff+ metrics have looked better. He's been slightly less blowup-prone. I don't care. I don't trust Justin Verlander as far as I can throw him.
Verlander has cashed this number in two of his 13 starts this year. Two!
It's mostly his slider. In 2019, Verlander posted a 24.8% swinging strike rate on the pitch, but that number has dropped to 15.5% this year.
He's also not keeping his fastball upstairs, and his command is waning. Verlander's on pace for his highest walk rate in a decade (8%), most recently issuing six walks to the Dodgers last week.
The White Sox can't hit right-handed pitching, but their strikeout numbers against the side have been merely league-average. And surprisingly, they've hit Verlander well, holding him to seven strikeouts and tagging him for seven runs across two starts last season (11 total innings).
Most projections have Verlander closer to 6.1 Ks, including our Action Labs Player Props Tool. So, getting even or plus-money to fade this number is a gift.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Verlander Under 6.5 Ks (+100) |
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