MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Clevinger, Graham Ashcraft (Sunday, August 27)
Emilee Chinn/Cincinnati Reds/Getty Images. Pictured: Pitcher Graham Ashcraft of the Cincinnati Reds
Well, Saturday was deflating as we picked up a reverse sweep. However, bouncing back on Sunday has been a theme this season, and we are primed to do so today.
So, let's not waste any more time and dive into Sunday's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, August 27
Yusei Kikuchi has been an enigma during his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays, and this season is no different. The 32-year-old lefty enters with a 3.52 ERA on the season.
However, he is seemingly bound to blow up as his WHIP is 1.23, and he's surrendered a great deal of hard contact. His one saving grace has been his ability to rack up strikeouts, but he won't be able to do that today.
Kikuchi today will face the Cleveland Guardians, who come into this matchup boasting the lowest team strikeout rate in the majors. Cleveland is not a team that will make a ton of hard contact, but its ability to put the ball in play could prove detrimental to Kikuchi's outing.
In addition to the toughest possible matchup for getting strikeouts, Kikuchi has a long track record of not surpassing this total. Over his last 57 starts, he has gone under this mark in 75.4 percent of them.
That gives us massive implied odds of -307 that he will go under this afternoon. Add that to our Action Labs projection of 4.6 strikeouts, and we have ourselves one of the top plays on the slate.
Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
Sunshine is next on our list of starters to fade on this slate, as this matchup has over-inflated his strikeout total. Mike Clevinger has had a nice bounce-back season on the south side of Chicago, but it's clear his track record of injuries has forced him to pitch to contact.
Clevinger's strikeout rate is down nearly 14 percent from his breakout campaign in 2019, and it's three percent lower than his career average.
Yes, he does have an excellent matchup in front of him as he'll take on the Oakland Athletics, who have the fifth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors. However, he has not proven he can go over this mark, and we are getting tremendous line value from the perceived juicy matchup.
Over his last 42 starts, Clevinger has gone under this total in 76.2 percent of them. That gives us implied odds of -320 that he'll go under today and makes this a spot to smash the under, given the current plus-money price.
Pick: Mike Clevinger Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 at PointsBet and BetMGM)
Graham Ashcraft was a pitcher who received a ton of preseason hype as he looked to have made great strides in Spring Training. Well, he's finally shown off some of that potential over his last four starts and has been lights-out and working deep into games.
Ashcraft has gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts, and while he's certainly turned his season around, what we have seen is an outlier.
The numbers are well in support of that statement as Ascraft has finished the sixth inning in just six of his last 25 starts overall, and four of the sixth have come this month.
The implied odds are staggering at -316, which gives us line value even on this heavily juiced price. However, Ashcraft also has a tough matchup this afternoon and will be on the road in Arizona.
Chase Field is one of the better hitting environments on the slate today, and the D'backs are a team that has proven they can mash while not striking out often. So, look for them to send Ashcraft to the showers early as he regresses to his mean.
Pick: Graham Ashcraft Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-162 at BetRivers)
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