PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Picks: Value on Clarke Schmidt, James Kaprielian (Friday, June 23)

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Clarke Schmidt Under 17.5 Outs (-135)

Despite acquitting himself better of late, this line still rings way too high for the Yankees’ righty. Schmidt is under this line in 13 of 15 starts this season, with both of his overs against weaker offenses (the A’s and the White Sox).

The Rangers are anything but weak offensively, with a 122 wRC+ and .800 team OPS over the last month against righties (both ranking third over that span). Plus, Texas is likely to trot out five lefties in their lineup, which plays into Schmidt’s worse split (.908 OPS allowed to southpaws).

Even with a tired bullpen, Aaron Boone has been reticent in letting Schmidt face lineups a third time through (opponents hitting 15-for-40 with a 1.047 OPS). Coupling all of this with the gloomy forecast, it’s tough for me to see Schmidt finishing six innings tonight.

Pick: Clarke Schmidt Under 17.5 Outs (-135) | Playable to 16.5

James Kaprielian Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-122)

This one might raise some eyebrows. On the surface, Kaprielian is a below-average major league starter facing a dangerous Blue Jays lineup in Toronto.

But let’s walk it back a bit. Since re-entering the big league rotation, Kaprielian has fared well, with a 3.69 ERA across his last seven starts. Over that span, he’s reduced use of his sinker, a pitch that does not generate strikeouts and has been hit hard (opponents hitting 12 of 31 off of it this season).

Overall, the A’s righty has recorded at least four strikeouts in nine of his 10 starts this season.

Facing righties is Kaprielian’s favored split, as he’s struck them out at a 23% clip over his big league career. The Blue Jays do run righty-heavy, likely with six in the lineup tonight (notably without Alejandro Kirk and his 11.4% strikeout rate). Plus, Toronto has run league average versus righties of late, with a 22% K rate over the last two weeks.

It might not be pretty, but I have Kaprelian notching his fourth strikeout in the fourth inning tonight.

Pick: James Kaprielian Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-122) | Playable to -145

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