MLB Props Today | Odds, Expert Picks for Lane Thomas, Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi (Thursday, July 6)
- With 13 MLB games today, our analyst has three player prop bets ready.
The Reds have continued to stay red hot and have now won seven of their last eight games. They are in position to sweep a four-game series against the Nationals. However, Lane Thomas may have other ideas, particularly facing a lefty today.
The Cubs and Brewers are both now looking up at the Reds in the NL Central. They have played a thrilling series in Milwaukee with comebacks in all three games and two come-from-behind victories. The Cubs will be looking to clinch a series victory and will hand the ball to NL All-Star Marcus Stroman.
Nathan Eovaldi will represent the Rangers for the American League in the All-Star Game. However, first he will make his first start back at Fenway Park since leaving the Red Sox in the offseason. He may be successful in keeping them off base tonight.
MLB Player Props For Date, Day
Lane Thomas Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
|Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals|
|First Pitch||1:05 p.m. ET|
A few weeks ago, we played Lane Thomas' total bases in a Thursday afternoon game against the Diamondbacks. He cashed it on a home run in the third inning before finishing 2-for-4 on the day. That game was started by left-hander Tommy Henry, and Thomas will get another left-hander today with Brandon Williamson getting the ball for the Reds.
Against left-handers this season, Thomas is hitting .385 with eight doubles, a triple, seven home runs, 21 runs batted in, a 1.116 OPS and .290 isolated power. We are not getting plus odds this time, because the books have caught on to how much he has destroyed lefties this season.
For comparison, he has seven home runs in 104 at-bats against left-handed pitchers and seven in 228 at-bats against right-handers. Williamson has a 5.56 ERA this season, and all eight of the home runs he has surrendered this season have come against right-handed hitters.
Thomas is +420 to hit a home run on FanDuel, and it would be nice if he hit another by his second at-bat to cash this over by the third inning again. However, there is a good chance that Thomas is on base in some capacity.
He has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games, with two hits (+195) in six of them. He is also hitting .314 at home, where he has a 13-game hitting streak. These trends have helped Thomas clear this line in seven of his last 10 games and all three games in this series. I like his chances of completing the series sweep with this line.
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Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-156)
|Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
Marcus Stroman is coming off a pair of rough outings in which he has allowed 11 earned runs in nine innings. However, that does not diminish the stellar first half he has put together. This season, Stroman is 9-6 with a 2.76 ERA and a 3.4 WAR. He likely does not come to mind when you think about some of the more prolific strikeout artists in the game, though he does he have 92 in 107 and 2/3 innings this season.
Stroman has recorded five or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. That includes punching out seven despite giving up five runs to Cleveland in his last start. I am drinking a little bit of juice because Stroman had exactly five strikeouts in three of those starts. However, I do believe there is some value on his ladder today.
Stroman has not faced the Brewers since Opening Day, when he struck out eight in six innings. That game also foreshadowed the Brewers' offensive struggles. This season, the Brewers rank sixth in strikeout percentage (24.3%) and 24th in wRC+, which comes after they ranked second and 26th, respectively, in those categories last season. Seven of the last nine starters the Brewers have faced had five or more strikeouts, and three of them had eight.
Stroman's max is 10 strikeouts at +1800 on FanDuel, but that may be a tad ambitious. His season high is eight, which he has done twice — on Opening Day and against the Rays in May. It is +600 for Stroman to match that total against the Brewers today. Eight may be the sweet spot to give us a value cash today.
Nathan Eovaldi Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
|Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
Unlike the Brewers, the Boston Red Sox do not strike out often. They rank 23rd in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. However, in June, there was a stretch where 10 of 12 starters went over their strikeout lines against the Red Sox. Since then, Kevin Gausman, Dane Dunning, and Jonathan Gray have all gone under against the Red Sox. Nathan Eovaldi's strikeout line is at 5.5 today, which is reasonable for him. However, I am going to back him in a different under tonight.
Eovaldi has held opposing hitters to a .211 batting average this season. It has helped limit his WHIP to 0.99 and ERA to 2.64, categories in which he ranks third and seventh, respectively, in the Major Leagues. He has allowed seven hits in just one of his last 10 starts and in just three of 17 starts. He will face a Red Sox lineup that ranks fifth in team batting average. However, a few notable lineups that Eovaldi has held under this line include those of the Braves, Angels (twice), and Astros in his most recent start.
For the season, Eovaldi is allowing just 4.9 hits per game, which we will round up to five for this exercise. We need him to allow fewer than seven, which gives us two hits of cushion. Per props.cash, the implied odds of Eovaldi going under is -467. We are getting -125 on DraftKings, offering tons of value here.
Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Under 6.5 Hits Allowed